Today, the USDA published its November 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, marking the first release since the government shutdown. The previous report was issued in September, and today’s figures reflect adjustments to crop production and ending stocks for the 2025/2026 growing season.
In the corn segment, the USDA reduced yield and production estimates from September, presenting figures that, while lower, still exceeded average trade expectations. The corn production forecast now stands at 16.8 billion bushels, a decrease of 62 million bushels from the prior estimate. The yield is projected to be 186 bushels per acre, a reduction of 0.7 bushels. Despite the lowered production, total supply has increased by 144 million bushels due to larger beginning stocks, which are up by 207 million bushels based on the latest Grain Stocks report. Export projections for corn rose to 3.1 billion bushels, reflecting a robust export season, with September and October potentially setting monthly records.
The soybean outlook is more somber as the USDA decreased yield and production estimates, bringing the soybean forecast down to 4.3 billion bushels, a drop of 48 million. The projected yield for soybeans is now 53 bushels per acre, reflecting a 0.5 bushel decrease. U.S. soybean exports are adjusted to 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million from previous forecasts due to anticipated increases in exports from Brazil and Argentina. The USDA also indicated lower supply levels stemming from reduced beginning stocks and decreased production.
For wheat, the USDA reported larger supplies and higher ending stocks for the 2025/2026 season, with production increased by 58 million bushels to reach nearly 1.985 billion bushels. This growth is largely attributed to a record all-wheat yield recorded in the latest Small Grains Summary.
Market reactions to the new report have been mixed and marked by caution. Jeremy McCann from Farmer’s Keeper expressed skepticism regarding the USDA’s forecasts, considering the potential limitations in data collection due to the government shutdown. He noted the discrepancies between USDA’s reported yield adjustments and the expectations of traders and farmers, who anticipated larger declines based on conversations with stakeholders.
Bob Linneman from Kluis Commodity Advisors highlighted the unexpected corn yield figure of 186 bushels per acre, which he described as bearish compared to marketing expectations of around 184 bushels. He noted that the agricultural market will be scrutinizing this information over the weekend, as traders assess the likelihood of future adjustments.
The USDA included a caveat in today’s report, acknowledging that certain data sources typically utilized were unavailable due to the government funding lapse from October 1 to November 12. This limitation may impact the accuracy of this month’s estimates, adding a layer of uncertainty for market participants as they navigate the evolving landscape of agricultural supply and demand.
