In a recent analysis, Jan Van Eck, the CEO of VanEck, has expressed a confident outlook on Bitcoin, forecasting that the cryptocurrency could rise to $180,000 by the conclusion of the current bull market. This bullish sentiment is underscored by Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with global M2 liquidity, which has historically reflected its price movements. According to VanEck’s latest mid-October report, Bitcoin has shown a correlation of approximately 0.5 with the growth of global M2 since 2014, indicating that fluctuations in fiat currency liquidity have significantly influenced Bitcoin’s long-term returns.
VanEck emphasized that while this correlation may weaken during temporary disruptions—highlighting events like the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the upcoming U.S. elections, or the ‘Tariff Tantrum’ of 2025—larger trends in monetary expansion tend to dominate Bitcoin’s market cycles.
Nathan Frankovitz, an investment analyst at VanEck, pointed out the dramatic increase in global liquidity since 2013, with the money supply of top five currencies nearly doubling from $50 trillion to approximately $100 trillion. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 700 times. This growth positions Bitcoin as a crucial neutral reserve asset amid widespread currency debasement, with Bitcoin now accounting for about 2% of global money supply. VanEck posits that holding less than 2% in Bitcoin or other digital assets could be viewed as a de facto short position in the emerging asset class, especially given Bitcoin’s current standing in the global money landscape.
Despite recent fluctuations in the market, VanEck remains steadfast in its $180,000 price target for Bitcoin by year-end, attributing the potential for this ambitious target largely to developments in the futures market. Since October 2020, changes in futures open interest have accounted for nearly 73% of Bitcoin’s price variance. As of early October 2025, futures leverage was nearing its 95th percentile, with cash collateral for Bitcoin futures reaching unprecedented levels of approximately $145 billion. However, open interest decreased from a peak of $52 billion on October 6 to $39 billion shortly after, following an 8-hour period where Bitcoin experienced a dramatic 20% drop.
The volatility in Bitcoin’s market is echoed by comments from industry figures, including Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of VALR. He noted that gold’s recent decline, which saw its market cap shrink by $2.5 trillion, might be indicative of a cooling phase rather than a loss of investor confidence. He suggested that the narrative surrounding safe-haven assets, which has often depicted gold and Bitcoin in opposition, could be evolving, with Bitcoin aiming to coexist alongside gold rather than replace it.
Ehsani also outlined favorable macroeconomic conditions that could enhance Bitcoin’s appeal, particularly if the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows soft readings or if trade tensions ease. Such developments might encourage investors to shift their focus from pure protection strategies to growth opportunities, thereby bolstering Bitcoin’s attractiveness.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a price range of $108,000 to $125,000, with the lower boundary acting as a significant support level. Analysts identify a “Whale Buy Zone” around $108,600, indicating that institutional buying might be occurring in this region. If Bitcoin can maintain support above $108,000, this could signal a positive continuation pattern, with potential targets at approximately $129,200 or even $141,000 pending sustained momentum. Conversely, a substantial dip below $108,000 could signal a shift toward lower support levels, estimated near $95,000.
Overall, the current market structure suggests a period of consolidation that could give way to an upward movement, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward the $130,000 threshold or beyond.
