In a striking forecast, Jan Van Eck, the CEO of VanEck, has predicted that Bitcoin could surge to an impressive $180,000 by the end of the current bull market. This assertion was made in the firm’s mid-October 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck report, emphasizing the cryptocurrency’s correlation with global M2 liquidity.
Van Eck highlighted that since 2014, Bitcoin has shown a notable correlation of approximately 0.5 (r² = 0.25) with the overall global M2 money supply growth, suggesting that fluctuations in fiat currency liquidity significantly influence Bitcoin’s long-term performance. While the correlation may weaken during short-term market shocks—such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the political events tied to the 2024 elections—Van Eck asserts that overarching trends in monetary expansion continue to drive Bitcoin’s cycles.
Supporting this view, VanEck’s Investment Analyst, Nathan Frankovitz, pointed out a remarkable growth in global liquidity, which has surged from $50 trillion to nearly $100 trillion since 2013. During this same period, Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed to over 700 times its previous value. Among various currencies, the euro’s M2 money supply was identified as the most influential determiner of Bitcoin’s price trajectory, establishing Bitcoin’s emerging status as a neutral reserve asset amidst widespread currency debasement.
As Bitcoin makes up approximately 2% of the global money supply, VanEck suggests that holding less than this proportion in Bitcoin or other digital assets may implicitly reflect a bearish stance towards the asset class. Despite the current volatility affecting the market, VanEck has reaffirmed its ambitious target of $180,000 for Bitcoin, attributing its potential achievement largely to fluctuations in the futures market.
Data indicates that since October 2020, roughly 73% of Bitcoin’s price variations can be attributed to changes in futures open interest. As of early October 2025, futures leverage was situated close to its 95th percentile, with cash collateral supporting Bitcoin futures reportedly at a record high of around $145 billion. However, after peaking at $52 billion on October 6th, open interest fell to $39 billion just a few days later following a rapid 20% drop in Bitcoin’s price. This scenario illustrates the precarious nature of leverage in the cryptocurrency sector, where levels above 30% have rarely persisted for more than 75 days.
Adding to the market dynamics, Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of cryptocurrency exchange VALR, spoke on the recent $2.5 trillion market cap correction in gold. He characterized this adjustment as a natural cooling phase rather than a decline in investor confidence. Ehsani noted that the traditional safe-haven debate may be evolving, with gold stabilizing and Bitcoin attempting to find its footing rather than directly displacing gold’s role.
The potential for Bitcoin’s upward movement remains contingent on favorable macroeconomic conditions, such as softening U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings or easing trade tensions. Ehsani indicated that a positive shift in these areas could promote investment in Bitcoin, envisioning a rally that might elevate prices towards the $130,000-$132,000 mark in early 2026.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently consolidating within the $108,000 to $125,000 range, with strong support at the lower boundary. The trading activity suggests accumulation by institutional players, particularly near the “whale buy zone” around $108,600. As long as Bitcoin remains above $108,000, the outlook appears bullish, potentially targeting upside levels near $129,200 and, with strengthened momentum, towards $141,000. However, a decisive drop below $108,000 may pave the way for challenges closer to the $95,000 support level. This ongoing formation indicates a period of consolidation, likely preceding a move towards the $130,000 threshold and beyond.
