Recent analysis from VanEck’s Mid-October 2025 ChainCheck has revealed optimistic projections for Bitcoin’s price trajectory, with potential increases contingent upon specific economic conditions aligning. The firm posits that Bitcoin could surge as high as $180,000 before the end of the current bull market, linking this anticipated growth to global money supply and movements in the futures market.
VanEck’s findings reveal a notable correlation of roughly 0.5 between Bitcoin and the global M2 money supply since 2014. During this timeframe, the liquidity across major currencies has nearly doubled, soaring from about $50 trillion to nearly $100 trillion. Correspondingly, Bitcoin’s price has skyrocketed by approximately 700 times. VanEck estimates Bitcoin currently represents about 2% of the global money supply and argues that holding less than this proportion could be perceived as a bet against the cryptocurrency’s future.
The analysis underscores the significant impact of futures markets on Bitcoin’s short-term price fluctuations. According to VanEck, approximately 73% of Bitcoin’s price volatility since October 2020 can be attributed to shifts in futures open interest, with substantial empirical support for this connection. Currently, cash collateral backing these futures contracts hovers around $145 billion. A recent marked increase saw open interest peak at $52 billion on October 6, only to diminish to $39 billion by October 10 following a sharp 20% drop in Bitcoin’s value over just eight hours.
The report emphasizes the fragility of borrowed positions in the futures market, which have hit around the 95th percentile at times. Historical data suggests that positions exceeding 30% have rarely sustained for more than 75 days, indicating that overly leveraged bets can quickly unravel, resulting in abrupt price swings.
Market analysts also examined the implications of gold’s recent $2.5 trillion market cap correction, suggesting that the adjustment reflects a cooling-off period rather than diminished confidence in the asset. Shifts in macroeconomic indicators, such as a softening in the U.S. Consumer Price Index or reduced global trade tensions, may prompt a reallocation of capital towards Bitcoin. This adjustment could support price targets ranging from $130,000 to $132,000 in the first quarter of 2026, while shorter-term forecasts indicate potential benchmarks of $129,200 and $141,000.
As Bitcoin’s price fluctuates between $108,000 and $125,000, VanEck has identified a critical “Whale Buy Zone” near $108,600. Sustaining prices above the $108,000 threshold would increase the likelihood of a bullish trajectory moving forward.
