Vanguard, a prominent $11 trillion asset manager, has made a groundbreaking move by opening access to an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) for its 50 million clients. This decision, effective December 2, 2025, marks a significant departure from the firm’s long-standing reluctance to engage with digital assets. Vanguard’s endorsement of XRP paves the way for the cryptocurrency to gain mainstream acceptance, shifting the conversation from whether XRP is a viable investment to if it can reach $3 by January 2026.
Historically, Vanguard was cautious about cryptocurrencies, choosing to maintain a conservative investment approach while competitors launched Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The shift in policy not only reflects a newfound credibility for XRP but also signifies a critical juncture for how the asset is perceived in the investment community.
The real transformative aspect of Vanguard’s decision lies in how it enhances the distribution of XRP. With Vanguard advisors now able to include XRP in regulated ETFs without additional approvals, the barrier to entry has been significantly lowered. This change means XRP can be assessed and incorporated into portfolios during routine advisory processes, removing the speculative nature that previously surrounded the cryptocurrency.
Following the regulatory clarity provided by the August 2025 SEC settlement, Vanguard’s risk teams have been able to approve multiple XRP ETFs. This approval allows XRP to integrate into more traditional investment models, transitioning from a speculative asset to a widely acceptable component in retirement accounts and diversified portfolios.
As the investment community adjusts to the new landscape, three primary forces are anticipated to influence XRP’s price trajectory towards the $3 mark by early 2026. First, institutional capital has begun flowing into XRP ETFs, rapidly surpassing $1 billion in inflows within just four weeks of launch. This influx predominantly comprises conservative investors leveraging retirement accounts and wealth management portfolios, as opposed to short-term traders.
Second, the supply of XRP available on exchanges has reduced significantly, with a 45% decrease from approximately 3.9 billion tokens to about 1.6 billion tokens. This dramatic reduction in supply stems from large holders (whales) accumulating tokens and the introduction of ETFs, which often leads to the token being held in custody rather than actively traded. With fewer tokens available, even moderate investment inflows can exert considerable upward pressure on price.
However, the full impact of Vanguard’s XRP ETF access is likely to unfold over several months rather than in the immediate term. The firm’s late-year decision coincides with a traditional slowdown in December, as advisors tend to focus on maintaining existing allocations rather than making new investments. As portfolio evaluations resume in January, it remains to be seen how quickly advisors will adapt and whether XRP can maintain its upward momentum.
Different scenarios predict varying timelines for XRP reaching the $3 threshold. The most optimistic view suggests rapid advisor adoption, wherein new allocations are made at a brisk pace, potentially pushing XRP above $3 by late January. A more standard institutional approach could lead to the $3 target being pushed into the first or second quarter of 2026 as advisors typically proceed with caution and a measured allocation approach.
Conversely, a less favorable macroeconomic environment could inhibit immediate demand for XRP, leading to price stagnation in the $1.95 to $2.30 range through January. In this scenario, further upward movement would depend on improved market conditions and sustained capital inflows.
Ultimately, while Vanguard’s decision signifies a crucial endorsement for XRP, the full realization of its impact on the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory will depend on various factors, including institutional behavior, market dynamics, and overall economic conditions.
