Chainlink has witnessed a significant trend among its largest holders, who have continued to accumulate the cryptocurrency aggressively even amid a phase of price compression and volatility. Recent data from Santiment reveals that the top 100 wallets of LINK have collectively added approximately 20.46 million tokens since early November, which roughly translates to a value of about $263 million.
This accumulation trend is noteworthy since whale investors typically refrain from prolonged accumulation during distribution phases. Instead, they tend to enhance their exposure when the potential for downside appears limited relative to the potential upside. Presently, LINK’s price is trading below previous highs, indicating a divergence between the accumulation behaviors of these large holders and broader market sentiment. However, while this accumulation may not result in immediate price increases, it does signal growing confidence among whales, suggesting a focus on long-term investment rather than short-term gains.
Chainlink’s price action has recently broken above the upper trendline of a falling wedge pattern, bringing to an end a phase of multi-month compression. Following this breakout, the price has retraced and is currently retesting the $12.00 to $12.30 zone, a critical level that aligns with former resistance turned support as well as prior horizontal demand. This region is particularly significant as it marked the last major bullish bounce prior to the breakout.
If Chainlink can maintain its position above the $12.00 level, the breakout structure remains intact. However, a drop below this level could lead to further declines, with the next area of liquidity around $11.50. On the upside, successfully holding above the recent retest might expose higher resistance levels at $14.69 and subsequently near the broader supply zone at around $18.79.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits around 40, indicating that while selling momentum has weakened, bullish strength has yet to return. Importantly, the RSI has stabilized without making new lows, implying a potential consolidation period rather than a continuation of downward trends.
Additionally, the Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) over the last 90 days has shown a clear buy dominance, indicating a consistent absorption of market sell orders. This suggests real demand is at play rather than leveraged speculation. When buy volume consistently exceeds sell volume, it implies that buyers are actively lifting offers instead of adopting a passive stance. However, despite this buying pressure, the price has not surged, hinting that sellers are still providing liquidity.
The imbalance seen in the current market is typical during accumulation phases, with strong buy-side dominance supporting the argument for structural stability around current price levels. Unlike rallies driven by derivatives, those led by spot demand may sustain longer trends, reinforcing the signals of whale accumulation and supporting a broader stabilization narrative for LINK.
On the trader front, data from Binance indicates that top trader positioning is leaning bullish, with long accounts accounting for 71.4% compared to 28.6% for shorts. This Long/Short Ratio of 2.50 reflects a growing bullish sentiment among seasoned traders. However, high long exposure can lead to amplified downside risks during sudden sell-offs. Yet, the timing of this dominance appears more favorable post-breakout rather than during a decline, suggesting that traders are positioning for potential continuation of the upward momentum.
Furthermore, the 24-hour liquidation heatmap reveals significant liquidity clusters situated both above and below the current price, with substantial liquidation pockets at the $12.60 and $13.20 marks. Markets often gravitate towards these zones due to the liquidity that forced liquidations provide, indicating that sharp directional moves could occur as the price seeks these levels. However, with liquidity on both sides, the risk of increased volatility remains high.
Overall, Chainlink displays several converging indicators suggesting strength building beneath the surface. Whale accumulation, supportive spot buying, and bullish trader positioning point towards a potentially sustained recovery. However, the price must hold the $12.00 retest zone—failure to do so could result in liquidity-driven volatility that may impede recovery efforts. The current data trends suggest stabilization with a promising outlook for potential upside, provided that key support levels continue to hold firm.
