An experienced Bitcoin holder who had been inactive for two weeks resumed selling activities, depositing a significant amount of 1,176 BTC, valued at approximately $136.2 million, to the Hyperliquid trading platform. This move coincided with Bitcoin testing critical resistance levels around $116,000. This redirection of funds is notable, particularly as the whale previously executed one of the largest Bitcoin-to-Ethereum rotations in history, trading a staggering 35,991 BTC, which was valued at $4.04 billion, for 886,371 ETH worth around $4.07 billion.
CEO of BTC Inc, David Bailey, recently indicated that two major whales may have played a pivotal role in preventing Bitcoin from touching the $150,000 mark. Bailey’s claims suggest that one of these whales has been eliminated while the other is in the process of liquidation. Compounding the existing market dynamics, there has been an awakening of multiple dormant Bitcoin addresses from 2011-2012, which has introduced additional selling pressure and contributed to Bitcoin’s difficulties in maintaining momentum.
The whale’s Eth-BTC arbitrage position is currently at a loss, approximately amounting to 460 BTC, or around $53 million, due to the ETH/BTC ratio lingering below 0.05 since July 2024. Although Ethereum has experienced a 155% increase since July and reached new all-time highs near $4,957, the current ETH/BTC ratio remains substantially lower than its peak of 0.14 in 2017, currently situated between 0.0401 and 0.0403.
As the whale implements a calculated liquidation strategy across various wallets while still maintaining significant reserves, data from Lookonchain shows that the individual retains control over 49,634 BTC, valued at $5.43 billion, distributed among four separate addresses. Past activities exhibit a high level of sophistication in market timing; for example, one whale managed to sell 24,000 BTC worth $2.7 billion in coordinated transactions that rapidly drove down Bitcoin’s price from $115,000 to $111,000 within a matter of hours.
The market has seen a surge in dormant wallet activations, with addresses inactive since 2011-2013 moving Bitcoin to exchanges like Kraken. Some notable transactions include a wallet holding 445 BTC that conducted its first transaction in nearly 13 years, and another holding 480 BTC that transferred its funds for the first time since 2012.
Bailey’s theory on whale eliminations points to a strategy of deliberate selling at predetermined price points, with speculation surrounding “one for 80k Bitcoin and the other for 120k Bitcoin.” Market analysis has indicated that the first whale executed substantial liquidations while the second is engaged in a cycle of rotating considerable positions into alternative cryptocurrencies.
In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin faces increasingly challenging conditions as selling from whales aligns with bearish indicators across several timeframes. The 50-day exponential moving average, currently at 113,465, has transitioned into a resistance level, and MACD signals have turned negative, validating a deteriorating trend.
As of September, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first weekly outflows since June, witnessing $126.64 million in net redemptions during August, contrasting sharply with the $6 billion inflow seen in July. This shift has curtailed a notable six-week streak of institutional accumulation, with the focus shifting toward Ethereum products which have markedly outperformed Bitcoin ETFs, attracting nearly $4 billion in inflows during August.
Despite Bitcoin’s closure at $109,000 at the end of August—down 6% since reaching record highs exceeding $124,000 earlier in the cycle—recent movements indicated potential for recovery, rising from $111,000 last week to surpassing $115,000, yet it has struggled to overcome the critical $116,000 resistance. Ongoing whale activity has the potential to negatively influence market sentiment further.
According to recent data from Bitfinex, Bitcoin has maintained a stable presence between $108,000 and $112,000, with buyers actively defending key support areas while attempting to recover from the losses stemming from prior sharp rallies. However, the exchange has cautioned that risks of a deeper correction persist, suggesting that consolidation may be the more plausible outcome as September often marks a cyclical low for Bitcoin, thereby set up for a possibly stronger Q4.
Notably, despite challenges faced in the retail market, institutional accumulation remains strong, with corporate Bitcoin holdings surpassing $200 billion across approximately 190 entities. Reports indicate that businesses engaged in various sectors have been acquiring an average of 1,755 Bitcoin daily—worth about $195.2 million—contributing significantly to Bitcoin’s market capitalization, which has risen by over $1.3 trillion in the last 20 months.
