On Friday, XRP experienced a decline to near the critical $3.00 mark, alongside a broader downturn in major cryptocurrency assets that trimmed midweek gains. The bearish trend was underscored by technical indicators such as the SuperTrend and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which suggested ongoing negative momentum. Conversely, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Ichimoku Cloud indicators hinted at a subtle bullish outlook.
Despite posting losses, XRP remained close to the $3.00 level. This reflects a decrease in retail interest in the cryptocurrency market following a small uptrend earlier in the week, where XRP peaked at around $3.14. This rise came in response to the United States Federal Reserve’s dovish forecast for the fourth quarter, which indicated plans to reactivate the cooling labor market with projections of two additional rate cuts by year-end, alongside a recent 25-basis-point rate cut. This dovish stance had initially revived risk appetite for cryptocurrency and other riskier assets, but volatility surged just as the weekend approached, cutting short the optimistic gains.
The derivatives market for XRP displayed a noteworthy steady uptrend in futures Open Interest (OI), which bolstered positive sentiment and indicated potential demand for the token. According to data from CoinGlass, the average OI on Friday stood at approximately $8.96 billion, rising from $7.37 billion reported on September 7. This rise in OI implies that traders are increasingly opening new short positions, contributing fresh capital to the market but concurrently intensifying downside risks. The observed drop in XRP’s price indicated a growing conviction for bearish sentiment and the possibility of continued downtrends in the near term.
As of Friday, XRP’s price hovered near the short-term support level of $3.00, reflecting a risk-off sentiment that permeated the cryptocurrency space. Notably, the RSI had corrected to a value of 52, down from 57 reached earlier in the week, signaling a diminishing bullish momentum. Should the RSI continue to decline below the midline, it could affirm the prevailing bearish sentiment, increasing the likelihood of XRP falling beneath the pivotal $3.00 support.
Additionally, the SuperTrend indicator, which currently lies above XRP’s price on the daily chart, is generating a sell signal. This suggests that investors may want to reduce their exposure or consider bolstering short positions. Given its role as a measure of volatility, the SuperTrend will likely act as a dynamic resistance, meaning that downside risks could persist unless XRP’s price manages to reclaim levels above this indicator.
Should XRP break below the $3.00 support, traders may redirect their focus toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.95 and the 100-day EMA at $2.83. However, the MACD continues to offer a subtle bullish signal that has been in place since September 8. If traders respond positively to this signal and increase their exposure, a rebound from the $3.00 support could be forthcoming. A recovery at this level would increase the likelihood of testing resistance lines at $3.35 and potentially the record high of $3.66.
The Ichimoku Cloud analysis on the daily chart remains below XRP’s price, reflecting strong support and providing a bullish outlook. Should XRP hold above the Ichimoku Cloud, which acts as dynamic support, it would suggest that the overall bullish trend structure remains intact, indicating that despite the current price drop, there are still short-term growth opportunities for XRP.
