A significant moment is approaching for XRP holders and potential investors, with crucial developments scheduled during the weeks of October 13 and October 20. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to announce decisions regarding several applications for spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Should the SEC approve these funds, XRP would be positioned alongside industry leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum in the U.S. spot-ETF market.
The SEC’s decision in August 2025 to extend its deadlines for ETF evaluations has created a scenario where multiple filings will converge within a single week later this month. This means investors will gain regulatory clarity about XRP ETFs all at once, as the SEC has the option to approve, deny, or remain inactive on these applications by the deadline.
A spot ETF allows institutional partners, termed authorized participants, to contribute cash to the fund sponsor, which subsequently purchases XRP in the market. This direct demand from significant asset holders has the potential to create a consistent flow of capital into XRP, thereby reducing its circulating supply over time.
However, historical precedence indicates that ETF approvals may not lead to immediate price spikes. For example, when Ethereum launched its spot ETFs in July 2024, they garnered about $106 million in net inflows on the first day—solid but not in line with investor expectations. It took over a year for Ethereum ETFs to reach significant inflow levels, highlighting that any immediate impact from XRP ETF approvals may be muted. Instead, potential price appreciation could accumulate over subsequent quarters, as fund issuers attract assets and retirement platforms start offering XRP ETFs to their clients.
If the SEC issues favorable news in October, investors should manage their expectations regarding the timelines for trading to commence. Even if approvals are granted, each ETF must have its registration declared effective by the SEC before listing on an exchange. Similar to Ethereum, which received approval in May 2024 but only launched in late July, a similar delay could occur for XRP ETFs, with actual trading potentially beginning in winter.
Once trading starts, the critical factor will be the persistence of inflows into the ETFs. Newly issued shares, backed by fresh purchases of XRP, will create real demand; however, this growth relies on investors maintaining their ETF shares instead of selling them off.
The broader regulatory landscape could also significantly influence XRP’s future traction. The October deadlines coincide with discussions in Congress regarding comprehensive digital asset frameworks, along with international efforts to harmonize stablecoin rules and cross-border settlements. An SEC approval could suggest that XRP has finally resolved its longstanding legal disputes with regulators. Conversely, any unexpected denial might rekindle concerns over XRP’s unique issuance model and its reception by policymakers.
Investors should also monitor the overall macroeconomic environment, as fluctuations in interest rates and liquidity could impact market dynamics. Recent experiences with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggest that demand can lag when markets are preoccupied with changing economic conditions. Should the Federal Reserve lower interest rates later in the year, this could lead to increased capital inflows; however, a downturn in economic stability could dampen investor risk appetite, affecting XRP’s performance even with an ETF approval.
Overall, the upcoming weeks could mark a pivotal shift for XRP as it seeks to redefine its narrative and position in the wider market. Investors considering a derivative play should prepare strategically for the implications of any forthcoming developments.
