XRP is currently facing challenges in maintaining its position above the critical 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), as negative market sentiment takes hold in the broader cryptocurrency arena. Trading slightly above $2.76, XRP is under pressure from concerns that September is historically a bearish month for crypto assets.
The performance of XRP is closely linked to macroeconomic factors, particularly upcoming data from the United States. Investors are bracing for significant indicators, including unemployment rates, the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and jobless claims, all of which will be released in the coming days. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, scheduled for mid-September, will also play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a strong possibility—87.6%—that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the range to 4% to 4.25%. Such a move could provide much-needed support for riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies like XRP, potentially reigniting investor interest and pushing prices higher.
Despite the current bearish sentiment, XRP has demonstrated resilience in prior Septembers. Notably, it posted a significant gain of 46.2% in September 2022, followed by smaller gains of 0.42% in 2023 and 7.98% in 2024. This historical trend raises the possibility that XRP could see another positive return if sentiment shifts favorably in the near future.
Retail interest in XRP remains robust, hovering around the $8 billion mark. Market participants are paying close attention to Open Interest (OI), which represents the total value of outstanding futures contracts. This metric will be crucial for gauging overall market optimism.
From a technical standpoint, XRP’s chart suggests a bearish trajectory, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator signaling a sustained sell-off since late July. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 39, down from a previous peak of 88, indicating diminishing bullish momentum. Traders appear cautious, opting to remain on the sidelines until clearer signals emerge.
If XRP can manage to close above the 100-day EMA at $2.76, it could indicate a strengthening bullish sentiment. Key resistance levels to watch include a potential move back above the $3.00 mark and a break above $3.35, assessed in mid-August. The coming weeks will be pivotal for XRP as it navigates these technical challenges amid shifting macroeconomic dynamics.
