XRP is poised to record its fifth consecutive monthly decline, marking a significant moment in its price history. The last time the cryptocurrency faced such a lengthy downturn was between October 2016 and February 2017, a period that saw a steep 37% price drop before it eventually bottomed out around $0.0055 in March 2017. Remarkably, what followed was an explosive rally where XRP surged by an astonishing 60,000% to reach $3.31 by January 2018. Market participants are now keenly observing whether a similar scenario could unfold this time.
Currently, XRP is encountering a combination of factors echoing that prior explosive growth: a series of five monthly losses, a tightening price range, and sellers appearing to lose momentum. However, the dynamics surrounding XRP have shifted significantly. Unlike the micro-cap market environment of 2017, when small inflows could dramatically affect pricing, XRP now operates with an $88 billion market cap. This substantial market size complicates the possibility of witnessing another 60,000% rally.
Traders are questioning whether the same bottoming pattern that ignited past gains can catalyze a new bullish trend for XRP, albeit on a smaller scale. Five consecutive monthly losses are relatively rare for XRP. In fact, even during significant market collapses, such as the Terra crash in mid-2022, XRP managed only three consecutive months of losses. Notably, prior to October 2025, XRP hadn’t experienced such a streak of losses since 2020, making the current scenario particularly striking.
Since reaching a high of $3.65 in July 2025, XRP’s price has plummeted by 60%, dropping from $2.84 at the start of October to around $1.42 today. Each subsequent month has closed lower than its predecessor, with February recording a further decline of 13.5%. This ongoing downward trajectory mirrors the earlier period between October 2016 and February 2017, where the price declined from $0.00885 to $0.00557, ultimately resulting in a dramatic price rebound.
While the current decline mimics the depth and duration of the historical downtrend, the implications for future price movements differ considerably due to the vastly increased market cap. A recovery to the previous high of $3.65 would represent a 157% gain from current levels—a much more modest projection than the spectacular gains of 2017. Analysts foresee XRP potentially revisiting prices between $3 and $5 by 2026, provided market conditions improve and institutional investment interest rises.
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, previously optimistic about XRP’s trajectory, recently revised his price target from $8 to $2.80, citing current market conditions and headwinds. However, he remains confident in XRP’s long-term potential, raising his 2030 target significantly.
The outlook continues to be shaped by Bitcoin’s performance, which is often seen as a bellwether for the altcoin market. As Bitcoin trades below $70,000, altcoins like XRP remain under pressure. A sustained recovery in Bitcoin above $75,000 could trigger renewed upward momentum in XRP’s price.
As traders monitor this significant red chart pattern, the next few months will be critical in determining XRP’s trajectory. The signal to act may not solely hinge on the consecutive red candles but on potential signs of exhaustion among sellers. Maintaining price levels above $1.50 or closing January with a green candle could indicate renewed buying interest. Conversely, further declines in Bitcoin could push XRP down toward the $1.00-$1.25 range, which some analysts view as a potential final flush before establishing a solid bottom.
