XRP has recently retreated from its 52-week high of $3.65, currently trading at $2.95, representing a 19% decline. Despite this downturn, investors are optimistic about a significant upcoming catalyst that may propel XRP to new heights.
The primary focus is the potential approval of new spot ETFs for cryptocurrencies. Currently, only Bitcoin and Ethereum have secured this status, but many believe XRP could soon follow suit. Various reports suggest a robust likelihood of approval, with Bloomberg indicating a 95% chance that spot ETFs will commence trading this year. Prediction markets support this sentiment, with Polymarket traders estimating an 87% probability of approval by the end of the year. A pivotal date is set for October 18, when the SEC will start reviewing applications for several spot XRP ETFs submitted by firms like Grayscale, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton.
Investors have been cautious following a previous decision delay from the SEC in August, which extended the deadline to October. A total of eight potential spots for XRP ETFs could receive approval between October 18 and 25.
Should the SEC approve these ETFs, it could signal a major shift for XRP. Top investor Dominic Basulto foresees the token “on the cusp of going fully mainstream,” as spot ETFs could attract significant inflows from both retail and institutional investors. J.P. Morgan has projected that as much as $8 billion could enter the market. Drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s spot ETF approvals in January 2024, which triggered a 160% price surge, Basulto speculates XRP might rise from its current level below $3 to possibly $5.
Yet, Basulto, who ranks highly among stock analysts, cautions that this scenario represents an optimistic outlook. Much of the positive sentiment may already be reflected in XRP’s current price, given that expectations for ETF approvals have been building for over eight months. Consequently, market reactions to the October 18 decision could be muted if the outcome is anticipated.
In a less favorable scenario, the excitement surrounding the ETF approvals could result in a “sell the news” outcome, where traders might push the price of XRP up leading to the decision, only to subsequently take profits, driving the price down again once approvals are confirmed.
There is an important reminder that the future of XRP is uncertain; the coin has a history of “overpromising and underdelivering.” Much of its past gains have been attributed to a bullish crypto sentiment that swept in alongside the new Trump administration, followed by subsequent tariff influences and broader economic challenges.
Despite these uncertainties, XRP has demonstrated a capacity for rapid price increases; it surged an impressive 580% from November 2024 to January 2025. Basulto emphasizes the significance of October 18, marking it as a crucial date for potential price movements for XRP this year. Investors are encouraged to remain vigilant, considering that strategic decisions will be essential in navigating the volatile crypto landscape.
