Ripple’s XRP-USD has recently been trading around the $3.05 mark, albeit experiencing a 1.59% decline within the past 24 hours. The trading volume stands at approximately $5.75 billion, translating to a market capitalization of $183.6 billion. Earlier this month, XRP managed to break out from a falling wedge pattern, briefly surpassing the $3.10 level before encountering pressure from sellers. Currently established support levels are noted at $2.98, $2.93, and $2.87, while notable resistance is observed at $3.20 and $3.50. The projected breakout target from the wedge indicates a potential upward movement to $3.64, suggesting more than 20% upside from present values if favorable momentum develops.
One of the primary drivers of XRP’s price movements remains institutional interest. The recent introduction of Ripple’s RLUSD, a stablecoin pegged to the dollar and issued on the XRP Ledger, sparked a significant 13% increase in price alongside heightened activity from major investors. Analysts speculate that the growing acceptance of stablecoins could bolster XRP’s role as a preferred settlement asset within RippleNet corridors. Furthermore, ongoing speculation regarding the potential approval of an XRP ETF in 2025 serves as an additional catalyst, possibly directing regulated inflows toward the digital asset. Together, these elements have led market strategists to project a medium-term target of around $4.50.
Despite the resilient price action, there are concerning signs emerging from on-chain data. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger have plummeted by 55% since July, decreasing from roughly 50,000 to 22,500. Concurrently, daily transaction levels have decreased sharply, dropping by more than 70% from 850,000 to approximately 223,000. Whale activity corroborates this trend, with more than 160 million XRP sold off within a two-week timeframe. This retreat by large holders raises questions regarding whether institutional investments can adequately compensate for declining retail engagement. Additionally, the network’s departure from the so-called “millionaire’s club” signifies a broader trend of diminishing participation.
From a technical analysis standpoint, XRP is currently trading above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.94, which is a crucial support level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled down to 53 from a previous 61, indicating a deceleration in momentum while remaining clear of oversold levels. The MACD is positioned in a neutral stance, although a potential bearish crossover could indicate risk-averse sentiment. Should XRP be unable to maintain support at $2.94, deeper support levels at $2.81 (100-day EMA) and $2.56 (200-day EMA) could come into play. Conversely, the formation of higher lows since September and a potential golden cross—where the 50-EMA crosses above the 200-EMA—indicates possibilities for longer-term strength, contingent upon a revival of demand.
Price predictions for XRP reveal a landscape of both optimism and caution. While some analysts foresee a short-term target of $3.64, with further prospects of reaching $4.00 and $4.50 contingent on sustained institutional flows, more aggressive forecasts suggest extreme potential gains—up to a staggering 100,000% increase to $2,990 per token. Such projections would necessitate unprecedented adoption, effectively positioning XRP as a critical global settlement layer in finance. Historical performance does offer a glimpse of possibilities, as XRP experienced a remarkable surge of 60,000% from 2017 to early 2018. However, with its current market cap at $183 billion, achieving similar gains poses significant challenges. For 2025, more realistic expectations lean toward consolidation above the $3.00 level, with bullish extensions targeting $4.50.
Community sentiment surrounding XRP displays a sharp division. Supporters highlight the benefits of RLUSD adoption, potential ETF approvals, and expansions of RippleNet as catalysts for another rally. In contrast, skeptics point to declining network activity and significant whale exits as indicators of diminishing utility. Derivatives traders appear more bullish, as demonstrated by funding rates at 0.0087%, reflecting a preference for long positions. This disparity between the optimism within futures trading and the concerning on-chain data contributes to XRP’s volatility, with prices capable of swinging dramatically.
In summary, Ripple’s XRP-USD presents a strong technical framework and institutional backing, facing resistance at $3.50 and forecasting a medium-term aim of $4.50. Nonetheless, declining address activity and substantial sell-offs by whales introduce significant downside risks. Should support at $2.87–$2.94 hold steady, the bullish trajectory remains viable, making XRP a speculative buy for traders targeting $4.50 while exercising caution due to the discrepancies between on-chain fundamentals and bullish sentiment in derivatives markets.
