Ripple has experienced a remarkable series of achievements in 2026, highlighted by the SEC’s classification of XRP as a digital commodity and the launch of full institutional services in Brazil. The company also saw the impressive filing of a $1 billion XRP treasury company for Nasdaq and substantial interest in XRP ETFs, which have attracted $1.44 billion since their inception in November. Despite these positive developments, the price of XRP has plummeted by 40%, falling from an opening surge of $2.40 to $1.44 in less than three months.
The macroeconomic landscape in 2026 has placed significant strain on risk assets. A sharp rise in oil prices, prompted by Israeli military strikes on Iran, has contributed to inflationary pressures, as illustrated by February’s producer price index exceeding expectations with a 0.7% growth. In response, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% while raising its inflation forecast for the year. Futures markets suggest that any potential rate cut is not expected until December at the earliest, with JPMorgan indicating the Fed may refrain from cutting rates altogether this year.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has also faced struggles, with its price dropping from $74,000 to around $70,000 following the Fed’s decision. Given that Bitcoin dictates the broader cryptocurrency market trends, XRP’s correlation with Bitcoin means it is highly influenced by Bitcoin’s performance. Currently, as Bitcoin remains in a range between $65,000 and $75,000, capital appears to be stagnant in BTC rather than flowing into altcoins like XRP.
XRP’s volatility amplifies Bitcoin’s movements, creating a 0.84 correlation. XRP has been observed to swing approximately 1.8 times more dramatically than Bitcoin. For instance, when XRP was valued at $1.60 on March 17, it dropped to $1.44 three days later, following a Bitcoin decline of around 5%.
Moreover, selling pressure from XRP whales has contributed to the currency’s decline, with an estimated $6 billion having been cashed out since the mid-2025 peak of $3.65. About 3.8 billion XRP have moved onto Binance in early 2026, indicating significant selling activity. Currently, around 60% of XRP holders face unrealized losses, creating a substantial barrier to price increases. Specifically, the price levels between $1.44 and $3.65 pose risk as a significant volume of holders are poised to sell once they break even, particularly in the $1.58-$1.60 range where approximately 2 billion XRP has been accumulated.
Initially, XRP ETFs were deemed beneficial for mitigating selling pressure, garnering $1.44 billion in total inflows and securing 772 million XRP. However, the weekly inflows have drastically dwindled, dropping from about $200 million at launch to under $2 million by early March, with net outflows reported in recent weeks. Retail investors constitute 84% of these flows, signaling a lack of large institutional investment that Ripple’s recent regulatory triumphs aimed to attract.
Ripple’s recent business expansion, while positive, does not directly enhance the XRP token’s value. Institutions tend to prefer Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin for settlements due to its stability, rather than taking on the volatility associated with XRP. Each new partnership for RLUSD benefits Ripple without necessitating the purchase or holding of XRP.
For XRP to regain upward momentum, Bitcoin needs to break out of its current stagnation. Additionally, the potential advancement of the Clarity Act could serve as a crucial catalyst for XRP’s price recovery. Although the SEC’s commodity classification is a step forward, it remains a regulatory interpretation rather than federal law, leaving banks and significant asset managers hesitant to invest without further legislative clarity. Observers speculate that if the Clarity Act does not progress beyond committee by the end of April, its chances of passing this year will diminish.
Until Bitcoin trends upward and the Clarity Act finds legislative footing, XRP’s price is likely to linger between $1.30 and $1.50, irrespective of Ripple’s achievements in expanding its operations.
