Analysts at Bloomberg have assigned a a staggering 95% probability to the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, with a decision from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) anticipated in October. This speculation has shifted market focus towards XRP, particularly as it reached a peak price of $3.04 on Tuesday. Despite this uptick, XRP’s trajectory faced resistance, and market players are keenly observing whether it could approach the $3.60 level witnessed back in July.
A notable increase in demand for XRP futures has emerged, with open interest rising by 5% from the previous month and totaling 2.69 billion XRP, equivalent to approximately $7.91 billion at current prices. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has recorded a significant 74% increase in outstanding XRP futures contracts, reaching 386 million XRP. This rising activity suggests a heightened interest from institutional investors and market makers, even as the balance between long and short positions is maintained.
In terms of futures contracts, XRP is currently trading at a 7% premium, indicating that leverage demand is balanced and aligns with market patterns over the past month. The underlying reason for XRP’s recent muted performance may be attributed to its relative underperformance compared to the broader altcoin market. Since August, XRP has remained stable while the overall altcoin market witnessed a 14% growth. This growth was propelled by significant gains in cryptocurrencies such as Hyperliquid (HYPE), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Ether (ETH).
The spotlight on XRP primarily revolves around the expected ETF approval in the U.S., with analysts placing the likelihood of greenlighting at 90% or more. The SEC’s decision, however, remains awaited until late October. In the meantime, there are indications that products from REX-Osprey that combine ETF and ETN structures may launch sooner, operating on a model similar to that of Solana Staking (SSK), which avoids the need for direct SEC approval.
Moreover, Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, has reached over $700 million in assets, though much of this supply was issued on the Ethereum network, resulting in minimal direct impact on the XRP Ledger. The stablecoin market is still largely dominated by established players like Circle’s USDC and World Liberty’s USD1, making competition robust.
Despite investor optimism about XRPL’s potential to facilitate international payments and replace the traditional SWIFT system, current data suggests that XRPL accounts for only 2% of outstanding Real World Assets (RWA), lagging behind rivals like Avalanche, Stellar, and Aptos. XRP’s future ascent to $3.60 remains feasible; however, with XRPL’s total value locked (TVL) at a modest $100 million, the likelihood of maintaining such upward momentum appears constrained.
