Ripple’s XRP-USD has recently broken the $3.00 threshold, trading at $3.04 during Friday’s session. This uptick coincides with Ripple’s announcement of a partnership with BBVA to offer institutional custody services in line with Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework. This collaboration solidifies Ripple’s position as one of the few tokens operating under well-defined guidelines in the eurozone. As it stands, the immediate resistance level is at $3.10; a decisive close above this point could pave the way for prices to ascend to $3.25 and perhaps even $3.50, levels not seen since a peak of $3.66 in July.
A significant catalyst for this surge has been the U.S. rollout of the REX-Osprey Spot XRP ETF, which officially began trading on September 12, 2025, following the completion of the SEC’s 75-day review. The introduction of this exchange-traded fund, directly linked to XRP, fundamentally transforms the token’s liquidity profile. Historical data suggests that similar initiatives for Bitcoin resulted in substantial inflows; analysts predict XRP’s near-term price could fall in the range of $3.30 to $4.00, with some bullish forecasts even aiming for $5.00 if the inflows remain consistent. In related news, the expected filing for the Franklin Templeton ETF has faced a delay until November 14, creating additional catalysts on the horizon.
On-chain metrics present a mixed scenario. On September 12, exchanges saw net inflows of $4.52 million, lifting balances to a peak of 3.66 billion XRP on Binance—the highest in a year—potentially signaling future selling pressure. Conversely, a significant accumulation trend has been observed among whales, who collectively acquired over 340 million XRP recently, while wallets holding between 10 million to 100 million XRP saw a 2.1% increase in their balances. This contrast indicates a tug-of-war between speculative traders looking to cash in at resistance levels and long-term holders positioning themselves for potential ETF-driven price rises.
The derivatives market is also displaying a strong bullish sentiment. Average open interest surged to $8.51 billion, an increase from the previous week’s $7.37 billion, though still trailing behind July’s $10.9 billion peak. Additionally, the funding rate has climbed to 0.0107%, suggesting traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain long positions. This demand for leverage adds to the bullish momentum but also renders the market vulnerable if it fails to break through resistance at $3.10 and $3.14. A sustained move above $3.35 would confirm a breakout, potentially bringing technical targets of $3.65 and $4.50 into play.
Macro conditions appear to favor XRP’s upward movement, with U.S. jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest level since 2021. This situation strengthens expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September, creating a favorable environment for risk assets like XRP. Additionally, Ripple’s pursuit of a U.S. national banking license stands as another significant catalyst. Gaining such a license could position Ripple as a regulated trust bank, enhancing its appeal for institutional adoption and further establishing XRP as a vital settlement layer in traditional finance.
Technically, key levels to observe indicate that support has moved upward to $2.92–$2.94. Any deeper corrections would likely target the $2.75 range, a level consistently defended in August. Conversely, breaking above the $3.10–$3.14 resistance could unlock immediate targets of $3.35, with medium-term aspirations reaching $3.65 and upwards to $4.00. The MACD buy signal has been maintained since Monday, with the RSI at 55, suggesting there is still room for further upward momentum before entering overbought territory.
Analysts generally forecast XRP’s price in September to range between $2.80 and $3.20, reflecting expected volatility around the $3.00 pivot. However, the anticipated inflow from the ETF and the potential acquisition of a banking license have buoyed long-term expectations. If both factors come to fruition, XRP could potentially reach $5.00 by the end of the year, with some speculative models even suggesting a target range of $8–$10 in an optimistic scenario. Conversely, failing to maintain support around $2.74 could result in a retraction toward $2.50, where historic 200-day EMA consolidation resides.
Given the convergence of ETF approval, expansion under the MiCA regulatory framework, and whale accumulation, the outlook for XRP is decidedly bullish. While short-term fluctuations are anticipated, the structural changes in accessibility for institutional investors set XRP apart from its altcoin counterparts. Currently priced at $3.04, the token is still well below its July peak of $3.66 and significantly away from speculative targets surpassing $5. With these pertinent factors in play, the current sentiment leans toward a “Buy,” with near-term objectives targeting the $3.35–$4.00 range and a year-end optimistic outlook reaching beyond $5.00.
