XRP-USD is currently trading at $2.84, experiencing a decline of 5.7% on the day and 9.3% over the past week. Despite the recent approvals of multiple Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), including the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF and REX-Osprey’s XRP ETF, which saw a day-one trading volume of $24 million, the digital token has faced significant outflows totaling $68.6 million. The failure to maintain the $3.00 mark reflects a fragile state of investor confidence, trapping XRP near its demand zone around $2.80.
Data from Glassnode indicates that XRP’s Liveliness metric has hit a two-month low, suggesting that supply from long-term holders (LTHs) is largely stagnant. This trend, characterized by accumulation rather than distribution, serves as a stabilizing force at current price levels. Moreover, the LTH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is below the 0.7 threshold that usually triggers heavy selling, further indicating that major holders are not cashing out. This selling restraint provides a crucial floor for XRP and mitigates the risk of a more significant drop.
Despite the buzz generated by the new ETF approvals, the short-term technical outlook for XRP remains bearish. Heavy liquidations this week have pushed the token’s price down from $2.99 to $2.82, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling to 38—just above oversold territory. The 30-day moving average has now become a resistance point at $2.89, while critical support remains at $2.80. A sustained breakdown below this level could lead to further declines toward $2.70 or even $2.64, while reclaiming levels above $2.94 and $3.02 would help revive bullish sentiment.
In the derivatives market, the positioning looks favorably skewed for bulls. On Binance, approximately 77% of accounts hold long positions against 23% short, yielding a Long/Short Ratio exceeding 3.0. This imbalance suggests speculative optimism, though it comes with the risk of sharp corrections should market sentiment shift. The growing open interest in this environment indicates that leverage is amplifying price actions, raising cautions among traders expecting a rebound.
Social activity surrounding XRP has seen a modest recovery, as indicated by Santiment data showing its social dominance rebounding to 2.79% from earlier monthly lows. However, this figure is still significantly lower than its July peak of 11%, suggesting that while community interest is improving, it remains subdued compared to previous bullish runs. Without a widespread retail enthusiasm, XRP rallies may face challenges at resistance levels, leaving the asset reliant on institutional and derivatives-driven momentum for direction.
Technically, XRP is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle formation, with resistance levels at $3.19 and $3.59. A breakout above these barriers could catalyze upward momentum toward $3.33, deemed a critical threshold by analysts. Conversely, if momentum fails to return, bearish control could solidify, with downside targets at $2.75, $2.64, and perhaps as low as $2.48.
Additionally, the NVT ratio for XRP has surged to 162, doubling in just 24 hours. This critical metric reveals that XRP’s market capitalization is climbing at a pace that significantly outstrips its on-chain activity, raising flags of potential overvaluation. Elevated NVT levels have traditionally signaled upcoming market corrections, as speculative investments tend to outpace genuine adoption. While the recent ETF approvals and RippleNet partnerships present a bullish narrative, underlying on-chain fundamentals imply a risk of short-term overheating.
In the broader macroeconomic context, recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have enhanced liquidity in the market, providing favorable conditions for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like XRP. These lower borrowing costs encourage investments in speculative markets, which XRP has historically benefited from during periods of monetary easing. However, uncertainty remains as some Fed members advocate for deeper cuts, while others express concerns over persistent inflation risks. This division adds an element of volatility to the crypto market, leaving XRP subject to sudden price swings even if long-term conditions appear favorable.
In summary, XRP stands at a pivotal juncture at $2.84. The ETF narrative has not been sufficient to break through resistance levels, while crucial support from long-term holders around $2.80 remains essential. Technical indicators suggest a potential breakdown toward $2.64 if market sentiment wanes, but a successful move above $3.02 could set the stage for recovery toward $3.19–$3.33. With speculative long positions dominating derivatives, a recovery in social activity, and the infusion of liquidity from the Fed, the environment remains volatile. The recommendation appears to be a Hold, balancing potential upside against notable downside risks in this critical consolidation phase.
