In a promising debut, XRPR wrapped up its first trading session with substantial activity, trading $37.7 million on Day One. This volume surpassed that of IVES, marking the largest natural dollar volume for any 2025 launch, as noted by Eric Balchunas.
During the trading session, XRP recorded an impressive five-day intraday high of $3.1397, although it subsequently eased back. Investors are left to ponder whether this noteworthy day-one volume will entice BlackRock to submit an application for an iShares XRP Trust.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency landscape saw significant developments as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) and the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) on September 18. This approval signified the beginning of the altcoin-spot ETF season, potentially paving the way for institutional investors to enter the market.
The SEC’s green light followed a rule change request from the Cboe, Nasdaq, and NYSE, allowing Commodity-Based Trust Shares to list and trade without having to file for the lengthy 19b-4 forms or navigate the SEC’s typical 240-day review process.
In terms of XRP-spot ETFs, seven applications are currently awaiting SEC review, with final decisions for various firms ranging from October 18 to November 14. Given the prior approval of exchanges’ Generic Listing Standards, it is possible that the SEC may approve the XRP-spot ETFs before these deadlines. The 90-minute trading volume for the REX-Osprey XRP ETF suggests that institutional demand could surpass market expectations.
As interest builds in BITW and GDLC, their performance may serve as early indicators of demand for altcoin-spot ETFs. However, the true test of institutional appetite for XRP will lie in the flows directed towards pure XRP-spot ETFs.
In terms of price action, XRP experienced a slight decline of 0.3% on September 18 due to profit-taking, which partially reversed the prior day’s 1.53% gain. The token managed to close at $3.0747, above the psychological $3 barrier for the third consecutive day despite underperforming compared to the broader market, which rose 0.44%. Traders are closely monitoring critical technical levels for both support and resistance:
- Support Levels: $3, $2.8, and $2.5.
- Resistance Levels: $3.2, $3.335, and the all-time high of $3.66.
Several factors could drive short-term price action:
- The inflows for BITW, GDLC, and XRPR.
- The upcoming approvals or delays regarding XRP-spot ETFs, particularly speculation surrounding a potential BlackRock filing, which could enhance market sentiment.
- The stance of blue-chip companies on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- Key regulatory developments, including Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news.
The outlook for XRP is contingent on whether institutional inflows and regulatory approvals align favorably or whether they face challenges.
Bearish Scenario
Potential negative events include weak inflows reported by BITW, GDLC, and XRPR, a rejection of XRP-spot ETF applications by the SEC, legislative setbacks, lack of adoption of XRP by major companies, or delays and rejections concerning Ripple’s banking license. Such developments could send XRP below the $3 mark, targeting $2.8 and potentially $2.5.
Bullish Scenario
Conversely, strong demand for BITW, GDLC, and XRPR, a BlackRock application for an iShares XRP Trust, favorable decisions on XRP-spot ETFs, growing acceptance of XRP by blue-chip companies, and legislative victories for Ripple could all drive the price upwards. A move beyond $3.2 might open the door to targeting $3.335 and potentially reaching the record high of $3.66.
As the situation unfolds, market participants are keeping a close watch on the developments that will shape the trajectory of XRP and its role within the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.
