A recent report from asset management firm Fidelity has revealed significant trends regarding the future supply of Bitcoin, suggesting that around 42% of its current circulating supply could be classified as “illiquid” by the year 2032. This translates to approximately 8.3 million Bitcoin (BTC) becoming increasingly inaccessible on the open market at the current rate of purchases by Bitcoin treasury and other entities.
Fidelity’s analysis highlights two primary groups contributing to this illiquid supply: long-term Bitcoin holders and publicly traded companies that possess a minimum of 1,000 BTC. The firm’s criteria for defining illiquid supply is based on the consistency of Bitcoin accumulation by these groups, with findings indicating that their holdings have either increased each quarter or at least 90% of the time over the past four years.
Long-term holders, those who have not transferred their Bitcoin from wallets for a minimum of seven years, have maintained stable supply levels without any declines since 2016. On the other hand, companies publicly traded and holding at least 1,000 BTC have also shown resilience, with only a single quarter of supply decrease noted in the second quarter of 2022. Currently, there are 105 companies in this group, collectively holding approximately 969,000 BTC, which accounts for about 4.61% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
Fidelity forecasts that by the end of 2025, the combined holdings of these two groups could exceed six million Bitcoin, representing over 28% of the maximum 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be mined. This limited availability on the market might exert upward pressure on the price of Bitcoin. As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, Bitcoin’s circulating supply was estimated to be around 19.8 million, with expectations that nearly 42% will qualify as illiquid by mid-2032.
Additionally, the report draws attention to the significant dollar value represented by the holdings of these groups, currently amounting to $628 billion at an average price of around $107,700 per Bitcoin—double the valuation from the previous year.
However, it also raises concerns about potential market volatility should key holders, often referred to as “whales,” decide to sell portions of their Bitcoin holdings. The analysis indicates that Bitcoin whales have already executed a notable sell-off, offloading BTC worth nearly $12.7 billion within the past month—the largest sell-off observed since mid-2022. During this period, Bitcoin’s price has declined by 2%.
Investors and market analysts are left pondering the implications for Bitcoin’s price trajectory, particularly given these contrasting dynamics between increasing illiquidity among major holders and the potential for market fluctuations driven by large-scale selling activities.
