At the Future China Global Forum in Singapore, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, expressed significant concerns about America’s escalating national debt, which currently stands at $37.5 trillion. He projects an additional $1.13 trillion in interest payments for the fiscal year 2025. While Dalio categorizes the situation as a potential crisis, he also believes that the U.S. government is not positioned to reduce its spending.
Economists primarily focus on the debt-to-GDP ratio rather than the absolute level of national debt. A country borrowing at a rate that exceeds its economic growth may eventually face skepticism from investors regarding the safety of their debt investments. Such a scenario could lead to a withdrawal of investor interest or the demand for higher interest rates to compensate for perceived risks. A nation’s central bank may opt for quantitative easing—essentially printing money—to mitigate debt value, making it imperative for governments to either curtail spending or stimulate economic growth.
Dalio, now 76, asserted during the panel discussion that cutting spending is not a feasible option for the U.S. government, stating it “cannot cut back on its spending for various reasons.” He highlighted that the national debt is a bipartisan issue, having been accrued by administrations from both parties. Nonetheless, recent policies such as President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act have drawn scrutiny.
According to a recent estimate from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), that legislation could add around $3.4 trillion to the national debt. However, projected tariffs could offset approximately $3.3 trillion of that within a decade. CBO forecasts for 2025 indicate that the U.S. is on track to spend roughly $7 trillion while only generating $5 trillion in revenue. This discrepancy is expected to widen over time; by 2035, spending could surge to $10.7 trillion, against revenues of $8.03 trillion. Dalio noted this imbalance in the market, asserting a lack of global demand for U.S. debt, which further complicates the situation.
While concerns about the Trump administration’s fiscal policies persist, the White House has acknowledged the pressing issue of national debt and is exploring various revenue-generating strategies. One such initiative is the proposed “Gold Cards,” a visa program which would charge wealthy immigrants $5 million for green card privileges leading to citizenship. Trump has suggested that selling a million of these cards could generate $5 trillion, raising the possibility of using the funds to alleviate some of the national debt.
Despite the questionable viability of the Gold Card plan—given that most millionaires already reside in the U.S.—economists have expressed cautious optimism about the intent to boost government revenue. Professor Joao Gomes from Wharton referred to Trump’s strategies as “peculiar,” yet acknowledged their potential impact on the national debt landscape.
Dalio also mentioned a shift in attitudes within the administration, noting increased receptiveness to addressing fiscal challenges. After discussions with officials, including Secretary Bessent, he observed a “greater realization of these problems” and a heightened effort to tackle them compared to previous administrations. This acknowledgment of the national debt crisis and proactive measures could shape fiscal policies moving forward.
