Recent analyses reveal that the Asian cryptocurrency trading session is significantly outperforming its U.S. and European counterparts, with a striking 46% cumulative return over the past year. This contrasts sharply with a 31% return in the U.S. and a 29% return in the European markets. However, industry experts caution that while this impressive performance may momentarily challenge U.S. and EU institutions, it is unlikely to catalyze the second half of a prolonged bull run.
The expectations for the current market cycle hinge on several critical factors, including liquidity, leverage, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Analysts underscore the importance of U.S. market dynamics in influencing the trajectory of this cycle, despite the noticeable outperformance of Asian markets, which achieved cumulative returns in the neighborhood of 47% over the past year, according to Velo data.
Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at Bitget, elaborated on this trend, attributing it to a staggering 69% year-over-year increase in trading volumes within the Asia Pacific region, which are anticipated to reach $2.36 trillion by mid-2025. This remarkable growth can be linked directly to regulatory clarity in Hong Kong that has spurred both institutional engagement and stablecoin adoption.
Further insights from Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at HashKey Group, indicate that the stark divergence in returns between Eastern and Western markets is largely due to the differing nature of capital inflows. While institutional investments dominate in the U.S. and Europe, Asian markets remain largely retail-driven, fostering a landscape characterized by increased volatility and speculative trading behaviors.
The ‘Kimchi premium,’ a metric that gauges the additional amount investors are willing to pay for cryptocurrencies on South Korean exchanges compared to those on global platforms, has remained predominantly positive throughout the year, barring a few declines in late November 2024 and early 2025. This premium reflects growing confidence in Asian exchanges such as Upbit and Bithumb, alongside platforms like Binance, Bybit, and Bitget.
Lee opined that the combination of the burgeoning Kimchi premium and the dwindling reserve ratio of U.S. versus offshore exchanges is reinforcing the dominance of Asian exchanges. This momentum could bolster cumulative returns in the APAC region, thus supporting the ongoing bull run.
Conversely, Ding expressed a more cautious outlook, suggesting that, although the Asian session is currently amplifying the Bitcoin bull run, this phenomenon is fundamentally tied to U.S. policy decisions and the prevailing sentiment around liquidity. Global factors such as dollar liquidity, decisions by the Federal Reserve, and the regulatory landscapes across regions will play pivotal roles in determining the longevity of this market cycle.
In terms of current market activity, Bitcoin has seen a 0.4% increase over the past 24 hours, trading at approximately $113,000 as it attempts recovery following a significant liquidation event earlier in the week, as outlined by CoinGecko data. This fluctuating landscape underscores the complex interplay between regional markets and global economic policies as investors navigate the evolving cryptocurrency ecosystem.
