Following a turbulent trading week, Bitcoin has seen its prices dip below $110,000, marking a notable 12% decrease from its all-time high of $124,457. In light of this downturn, analyst Ted Pillows is making waves in the financial community with a bold forecast that aims to alleviate concerns regarding a potential cycle peak.
Traditionally, the cryptocurrency market has followed a predictable cycle, peaking in the fourth quarter of every fourth year. This pattern corresponds closely with the post-halving excitement and an influx of both retail and institutional demand. Such trends were evident in Bitcoin’s past cycles, where it hit highs of $19,700 in December 2017 and $69,000 in November 2021. However, Pillows suggests that the current market landscape may diverge from these historical patterns, aligning instead with the US business cycle.
Key to this analysis is the influence of US business policies, particularly those concerning liquidity, interest rates, and inflation. The Federal Reserve recently enacted its first rate cut of 2025 this September, and projections indicate this dovish stance may continue over the next six months. Analysts from JP Morgan forecast two additional rate cuts in 2025 and another in 2026, which would significantly enhance investors’ liquidity through easier borrowing conditions. This shift is expected to support investments in higher-risk assets, including Bitcoin.
The introduction of Bitcoin Spot ETFs has further altered the investment landscape, making it easier for institutions to allocate funds into Bitcoin. Currently, the total inflows from these ETFs stand at an impressive $57.23 billion, which, along with the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies, has fostered a more mature market that could be influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than solely by crypto-centric cycles.
Should US market dynamics take precedence, Pillows anticipates a potential peak for Bitcoin in the first or second quarter of 2026, suggesting that price targets could trend higher despite the recent declines.
On the immediate horizon, Bitcoin appears to be showing resilience, recently bouncing off the support level around $109,000. According to Pillows, the flagship cryptocurrency may be on a path to reclaim the $112,000 resistance level. If market bulls manage to overcome this hurdle, there could be further gains, possibly reaching $117,000. Conversely, a failure to hold the $109,000 support could lead to a downturn, with potential prices dropping to $101,000. At present, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $109,420, reflecting a slight decline of 0.25% over the last day. This indicates a period of volatility that traders will likely be watching closely in the coming days.
