Bitcoin’s short-term momentum has experienced a notable decline following the steep market drop on October 10, although recent analyses from on-chain data platform CryptoQuant indicate that long-term structural demand remains strong. In a report released on Friday, the firm cautioned against interpreting the current market situation as a “season finale,” suggesting that it is too premature to make definitive conclusions.
Tiger Research, another analytical firm, has adopted a more optimistic stance by projecting a price target of $200,000 for the fourth quarter. They attribute this bullish outlook to ongoing net market buying amidst heightened volatility.
Central to CryptoQuant’s analysis is the ‘dolphin’ cohort, comprising wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoin. This group includes significant players such as ETFs, corporations, and emerging large-scale holders, and currently accounts for approximately 5.16 million BTC—equating to 26% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Historically, movements in the holdings of the dolphin cohort have served as a reliable indicator of Bitcoin’s price momentum.
The accumulation trend among this cohort has been crucial, with CryptoQuant noting that in 2025, the dolphin cohort was the only group to increase its holdings year-over-year, amassing over 681,000 BTC. Other cohorts experienced net decreases during the same period.
As of now, the annual growth rate of dolphin-held assets remains positive, with their total holdings reaching 9.07 million BTC—surpassing the 365-day moving average growth of 730,000 BTC. However, the firm emphasized the need for vigilance, acknowledging that the October 10 crash has dampened short-term momentum. For Bitcoin to breach the $126,000 mark, a renewed phase of accumulation is necessary, with a monthly accumulation rate that accelerates.
CryptoQuant has identified $115,000 as a critical short-term resistance level and $100,000 as immediate support. A decline below the $100,000 threshold could prompt a significant correction down to $75,000.
On a more optimistic note, Tiger Research highlights the shifting market dynamics as it transitions from retail-driven activities to those led by institutional investors. Unlike the widespread panic that marked the late 2021 decline, recent market corrections have seen limited reactions, suggesting a more stable base for future price growth. The continued accumulation by institutional investors in the wake of the correction offers hope for sustaining the bullish trend. Tiger Research also pointed to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts as a significant catalyst for a rally in the fourth quarter, further supporting their anticipated price target of $200,000.
