Bitcoin continues to display a decidedly negative technical structure, with expert analyst Josh Olszewicz emphasizing that this outlook will persist until a crucial resistance level is reclaimed. In a recent video analysis, Olszewicz evaluated the current situation using the Ichimoku Cloud and a variety of trend signals. He stated, “Below the cloud we’re bearish; above, we’re bullish. We are currently below… and fully bearish on price, with expectations of lower lows.”
For Olszewicz, the pivotal point for a reversal in sentiment is a recovery to around $115,000. He expressed his bearish stance firmly, stating, “I don’t really have anything bullish to say here at all until we’re back above $115,000 on BTC and $4,200 on ETH.” In comparison to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s setup appears somewhat less negative; it is trading “in the cloud,” though Olszewicz cautioned that it does not signal a strong entry point for buyers.
In his analysis of Bitcoin, Olszewicz noted multiple bearish indicators, including a bearish Chikou span on the weekly chart, moving-average crossovers trending downward, and head-and-shoulders patterns at both larger and smaller scales. Expressing concern about potential price movements, he remarked, “If I were to randomly wake up and see price at $103k, $102k, that would not surprise me… it’s possible we flirt with… below $100,000.”
He highlighted the deterioration in derivatives premium as an additional bearer of bad news, citing the CME basis making multi-month lows. Spot flow figures also indicate weakness, as significant amounts of Bitcoin continue to be sent to exchanges, suggesting selling activity rather than accumulation.
On the macroeconomic front, Olszewicz connected Bitcoin’s current performance to broader market conditions. He identified the ongoing US government shutdown as a possible hinderance to liquidity and noted a potential increase in volatility due to an upcoming data drought in employment numbers. Following recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the odds of rate cuts have tightened, which did not bode well for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Olszewicz also discussed the implications of rising inflation indicators, stating, “Trueflation is ticking higher consistently… you don’t want to be in this position where we are cutting into rising inflation.” He warned that a Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline beginning with a ‘3’ could be detrimental to market sentiment.
Amid mixed liquidity optics, Olszewicz pointed out that the reverse repo facility has been under strain and emphasized that the long-established connection between global liquidity gauges and Bitcoin has been absent since mid-summer. The strength of the US dollar is also viewed as a significant pressure point for Bitcoin, with Olszewicz stating, “The dollar continues to look good, continues to push higher… a real problem for Bitcoin if that uptrend persists.”
Regarding equities, Olszewicz noted a robust technical setup in the major indices, which complicates Bitcoin’s performance. He argued that if Bitcoin struggles to find momentum amidst a bullish equity market, it raises concerns for its future. He observed that Bitcoin miners have shown stronger performance due to themes outside of Bitcoin’s fundamentals, such as advancements in AI, but cautioned that other high-beta tech sectors look fatigued.
Lastly, he spoke to overall market psychology and the inclination for wealth preservation as investors grow weary after extended gains. “More and more people are just saying, okay, this is enough… it makes some sense to take a little bit off the table,” he suggested. Until there’s a technical shift, Olszewicz advises a cautious approach, recommending that traders remain patient for optimal entry points.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $103,634, underlining the bearish prognosis shared by the analyst.
