MicroStrategy continues to solidify its position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, maintaining approximately 649,870 BTC as of mid-November 2025. The company acquired these assets for around $48.37 billion, resulting in an average purchase price of about $74,433 per Bitcoin. However, with Bitcoin’s recent price dip below the $80,000 mark, challenges are emerging for the firm and its co-founder, Michael Saylor.
The potential removal of MicroStrategy from the Nasdaq-100 Index looms large due to ongoing evaluations by MSCI, a prominent global index provider. The ongoing consultation considers whether companies whose digital assets constitute over half of their total assets can still be classified as conventional operating businesses. The outcome of this consultation is anticipated around January 15, 2026, and it carries significant implications for MicroStrategy.
Should MSCI choose to exclude firms identified as “digital asset treasury companies,” MicroStrategy could face exclusion from MSCI indices, triggering a potential forced selling wave estimated to be between $2.8 billion and $11.6 billion. Analysts estimate a high probability of this decision, ranging between 80% and 95%, which may correlate with Bitcoin’s sharp recent decline.
If MicroStrategy were to be removed from MSCI indices, analysts suggest that passive outflows could reach approximately $2.8 billion. If additional indices, such as Nasdaq-100 and FTSE Russell, follow suit—a scenario JPMorgan estimates has a 70% to 90% probability—the total forced selling could escalate to between $8 billion and $11 billion, amounting to 15% to 20% of MicroStrategy’s market cap.
Despite this precarious situation, Saylor remains committed to his Bitcoin strategy, viewing it as a long-term treasury strategy. However, in the short to medium term, looming challenges could create significant obstacles for the company, impacting stock volatility and liquidity.
As Bitcoin’s price hovers above $80,000, concerns grow regarding the potentiality of it falling below $74,000. Such a drop would mean MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings would show unrealized paper losses, adversely affecting its stock, which trades as a highly leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. The stock has already been on a downward trajectory, exacerbated by the MSCI’s potential removal.
Nevertheless, while these developments raise questions about MicroStrategy’s market performance, the company itself may be in no immediate danger. A review of its financial structure indicates that the bulk of its approximately $8 billion in debt involves convertible notes that do not mature until 2027 to 2032, thus mitigating the risk of forced selling or margin calls in the immediate future.
MicroStrategy has previously navigated significant challenges, including a crisis in 2022 that sparked bankruptcy fears. Currently, while the threat of index exclusion persists, the company’s Bitcoin stack remains profitable, and its debt obligations are well managed. Despite market volatility, Saylor’s dedication to holding Bitcoin suggests that, while the coming months could be turbulent, MicroStrategy’s fundamental integrity remains intact.
