A notable shift in the cryptocurrency market is being highlighted by a veteran market analyst, who believes a key technical pattern could indicate a turning point for Bitcoin, especially after its ongoing underperformance compared to gold. As traders assess the implications of gold’s recent rally, concerns have emerged regarding Bitcoin’s reputation as a safe haven asset.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has witnessed a significant decline, plummeting from 32 on October 5 to approximately 20 currently, marking a decrease of over 37%. This decline suggests that one Bitcoin, which could purchase around 32 ounces of gold at the beginning of October, can now acquire only about 20 ounces. The descent in the ratio has intensified alongside gold’s price rise, which coincided with Bitcoin crossing below important psychological price levels.
Recent daily analyses hint at a potential change in momentum for Bitcoin. On November 21, the BTC/gold pair hit a low of 20 with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 21.30. Following this, a lower low recorded near December 1 was accompanied by a higher RSI value of 26.83. Another trough on December 26 registered a value of 19, coinciding with an even higher RSI of 32.21. Market expert Michaël van de Poppe identified this as a “strong” bullish divergence on the daily timeframe, indicating that selling pressure might be easing despite new price lows.
Examining the situation on a weekly timeframe supports this analysis further. The current weekly RSI for the BTC/gold pair stands at about 31.85, a level last observed during the pivotal November 2022 sell-off linked to the FTX collapse, which ultimately marked a bottom for that cycle. This pattern parallels previous RSI lows seen during bear market bottoms in both 2015 and 2018. Collectively, these indicators—daily divergence and low weekly RSI—strengthen the argument that Bitcoin’s ongoing downtrend could be losing momentum, though market analysts caution that certainty is not assured.
Market sentiment remains divided among investors as gold’s performance has been remarkable, showing a surge of over 70% in 2025, while Bitcoin experienced a slight decline of 7% for the year in various measures. As it stands, Bitcoin is trading at around $87,750, representing a 4.8% drop year-to-date. This stark contrast in performance has led to renewed scrutiny of the narrative surrounding Bitcoin as “digital gold,” especially as gold reaches historic highs.
In the current landscape, short-term capital appears to favor gold for its perceived safety, with many traders turning to the yellow metal as a reliable shelter. Conversely, long-term Bitcoin holders continue to advocate for its considerable upside potential once investor risk appetite resumes. Moving forward, market observers will closely monitor whether fluctuations in the BTC/gold ratio and price movements will provide the necessary follow-through above critical price levels. Until such confirmation occurs, prevailing signals are likely to remain uncertain.
