Despite the positive developments surrounding XRP, including the recent resolution of its legal challenges with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the introduction of spot XRP ETFs in the United States, the cryptocurrency has found it difficult to break the $3 mark. The overall market volatility has heavily influenced investor sentiment, with many focused on achieving significant price milestones, such as surpassing previous highs of $4 and $5.
Looking ahead, there is speculation that XRP could potentially target a price of $10, which would represent a considerable upside of about 370% from its current valuation.
To gauge the odds of XRP reaching the $10 mark by 2026, Finbold sought insights from OpenAI’s ChatGPT model. The AI estimates the likelihood of XRP trading at $10 at any point during the current year to be around 18%. However, this scenario is viewed as an extreme bullish outcome rather than a central expectation for the cryptocurrency’s trajectory this year.
The model suggests that achieving a price point of $10 would necessitate an overarching bull market in cryptocurrencies, driven primarily by Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, along with a significant influx of capital into large-cap altcoins like XRP. Additionally, for this scenario to materialize, there must be sustained regulatory clarity across global markets, defining XRP as a compliant and attractive option for institutional investment. The growth of payment volumes linked to XRP and its institutional use would need to outstrip mere speculative inflows.
For XRP to exceed $10, the resulting market capitalization would need to surpass $500 billion, placing it among the largest cryptocurrency assets in existence. However, there are several constraints identified by the model that could hinder this optimistic projection. These include XRP’s substantial circulating supply, which inherently limits its price potential compared to smaller cryptocurrencies, and historical patterns that show a lack of consistent correlation between growth in network utility and significant price increases.
Compounding the challenges are competitive pressures from stablecoins, central bank digital currencies, and alternative settlement layers, which could further stifle long-term valuation potential. Historically, cryptocurrency bull markets have concentrated capital among fewer assets, deviating from retail investors’ expectations regarding widespread opportunities for profit.
In terms of liquidity scenarios, ChatGPT assigned a 55% probability to a baseline expectation of XRP trading in the $2 to $4 range through 2026, while a more positive scenario placing it between $5 and $7 carries a 27% likelihood.
As of current performance, XRP is valued at $2.09, showing an increase of 0.27% in the last 24 hours and a weekly uptick of over 4%. Technical indicators reveal that XRP is currently trading slightly above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $2.03, suggesting a modest short-term support level and potential for stabilization. However, it remains significantly below its 200-day SMA of $2.57, indicating a longer-term downtrend and challenges to achieving a sustained recovery.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 54.14, reflecting a neutral position without substantial buying or selling pressure, which leaves room for potential consolidation as the market prepares for future directional movements.
