Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) has been trading within a narrow range of $0.10 to $0.12 for the past week, but recent technical analyses suggest that a decline below the $0.10 mark could be on the horizon. This is occurring amid a notable dip in social sentiment around HBAR, reaching quarterly lows. While the support from large investors, or ‘whales’, could alleviate some concerns, current trends indicate that such backing is lacking at the moment. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is trending downwards on both daily and 4-hour price charts for HBAR, signaling a potential lack of confidence in the $0.10 range as a solid support level.
In a more optimistic development, Hedera’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) on NASDAQ is observing increased activity, reaching a two-month record. The ETF, sponsored by Canary Capital, recorded an inflow of $3.31 million on January 21, 2026, bringing its total worth to approximately $57 million. Grayscale is also expected to launch its own HBAR ETF later this year, potentially adding further liquidity to the market. Despite this uptick, it remains uncertain whether the observed inflows signal a sustained trend or are simply a temporary anomaly.
From a technical viewpoint, HBAR appears to be in an overbought condition, as it struggles to reclaim the Smoothed Moving Average (SMA) trend-line. Currently priced below the mid-point Bollinger Band at $0.109, bearish sentiment remains prevalent, with bulls seemingly absent from the action.
In light of these dynamics, several questions arise regarding HBAR’s future trajectory. For long-term investors, ETF inflows may indicate steady institutional demand that could help absorb supply during consolidation phases. In terms of technical levels, the $0.10 zone has historically acted as a floor, attracting buyers in previous instances and aligning with bullish divergences.
However, risk factors are also present. High volatility persists, and broader crypto market fluctuations or macroeconomic pressures could cause HBAR to dip below the $0.10 support if it fails to hold. Catalysts that could potentially drive HBAR upward include sustained ETF inflows, tightening spot demand, and growth within the Hedera ecosystem, particularly through initiatives like Real-World Asset pilots.
Investors considering HBAR below the $0.10 level must assess their risk tolerance and investment horizon, as the current data suggests a potential opportunity for contrarian or institutional accumulation. As the market continues to evolve, keeping an eye on these factors will be essential for stakeholders interested in the future of HBAR.
