A recent analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has revealed that the vast majority of President Trump’s tariff increases are being shouldered by American consumers and businesses, rather than foreign exporters. The findings indicate that approximately 90% of the cost associated with the administration’s import duties is landing on US citizens. Specifically, from January to August 2025, Americans bore about 94% of the tariff burden. This figure slightly decreased to 92% in September and October and further to 86% in November, but it still overwhelmingly indicates a domestic impact.
These conclusions are corroborated by a separate assessment from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which highlighted that the higher tariffs generally lead to increased prices for imported products, subsequently raising costs for American households and businesses. According to the CBO, foreign exporters are only responsible for around 5% of the tariff costs. In the short term, the report suggests that US businesses may absorb roughly 30% of the increased costs through reduced profit margins, transferring the remaining 70% onto consumers in the form of higher prices. A study conducted by a German research institute echoed these findings, reporting that US consumers and importers may be paying as much as 96% of the tariff burden.
Tariffs have played a pivotal role in Trump’s economic agenda, aimed at generating revenue, exerting pressure on trade partners, and incentivizing manufacturers to return production to the United States. While it has been noted that foreign suppliers occasionally lower prices in response to tariffs, this reaction appears to be rare, according to data reported by the New York Times. In a recent op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal, Trump claimed that evidence shows the burden of tariffs predominantly falls on foreign producers and intermediaries, including large non-US corporations. However, the current data indicates a different reality, underscoring the substantial financial impact on American consumers and businesses.
