Since escalating tensions in Iran began at the end of February, Bitcoin has demonstrated a remarkable resilience, rising from approximately $65,000 to over $72,000. Contrary to expectations that the cryptocurrency would struggle during a crisis, it has instead shown an upward trajectory, leading many analysts to reassess its performance.
In a recent analysis by JPMorgan, a significant trend has emerged: Bitcoin is currently attracting more capital than gold. This observation, which would have seemed improbable just a month ago given the prevailing sentiment towards these assets, indicates a noteworthy shift in investor behavior. JPMorgan’s analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, detailed this “stark divergence” in capital flows between SPDR Gold Shares and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust. As it stands, gold has faced outflows of about 2.7% of its assets under management, while the Bitcoin trust has experienced inflows of roughly 1.5% in the same period. In the past week alone, Bitcoin has surged nearly 10%, including a significant 1.5% increase observed on Friday.
This change in dynamics marks a significant reversal compared to 2025, when gold outperformed Bitcoin by more than 63%. Historically, Bitcoin often follows gold trends, as evidenced in the cycles of 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin’s gains typically occurred after gold had reached its peak. During the 2022-2024 cycle, both assets moved in tandem before gold broke away on its own.
In addition to market behavior, a regulatory tailwind may also be influencing investor sentiment. The passage of the GENIUS Act, along with the anticipated CLARITY Act, could solidify Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins as legitimate, government-backed asset classes. This shift in narrative is creating a favorable environment that might prompt increased investments in Bitcoin even before the geopolitical concerns resolve.
Current inflow trends suggest that retail investors and registered investment advisers (RIAs) are capitalizing on this opportunity to position themselves in anticipation of further upward momentum in Bitcoin’s value. The growing interest in Bitcoin reflects a belief among some investors that it could see significant growth as its recognition expands, hinting that they may be getting ahead of a broader market realization of Bitcoin’s potential.
