President Donald Trump expressed surprise at the resilience of the stock market amidst ongoing tensions in the Iran conflict during a recent interview with CNBC. Contrary to his expectations of severe financial repercussions, Trump indicated that the market’s stability has been unexpectedly strong.
In the interview on “Squawk Box,” Trump conveyed that he anticipated a significant decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, expecting them to drop by approximately 20%, a threshold that typically indicates a bear market. He also predicted oil prices might soar to $200 a barrel. “If you would have told me that oil is at $90 as opposed to $200, I would be frankly surprised,” he remarked.
Trump noted that various industries are adapting to current conditions by sourcing from alternate locations. “Boats are finding other sources. They’re going up to Texas and Louisiana. They’re going to Alaska, they’re going to other places. It’s an amazing phenomenon,” he added, highlighting the shifts in supply chains in response to the crisis.
Regarding the stock market, which Trump often cites as a measure of economic success, he shared his thought process leading into the conflict, expecting a substantial sell-off. “Look at that S&P 500. The numbers are what they were when we started this whole thing. I thought they’d be down 20% or down a very substantial amount,” he said, reflecting on market performance. He expressed his astonishment at the stock market’s previous dip and stated, “I thought it would be down much more, and I’m very happy to say that it wasn’t.”
Market reactions in the early weeks of the conflict were volatile, with significant drops prompted by escalating tensions. However, following a recent ceasefire announcement, stocks rebounded, with the Dow currently hovering near record highs established earlier this year.
In the energy sector, the price of U.S. light, sweet crude initially surged above $112 a barrel before declining after the ceasefire news. Nevertheless, gasoline prices remain elevated, with averages exceeding $4 a gallon — an increase of about 87 cents compared to the same time last year.
As the events continue to unfold, many are closely monitoring how these developments will influence both the stock market and energy prices moving forward.
