Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a decline of more than 2% on Monday, continuing to be influenced by growing tensions associated with the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran. This slip came as the cryptocurrency gave up earlier gains, with its value dipping toward a 3% loss during the day.
Data from TradingView illustrated that Bitcoin reached local lows of $76,567 on the Bitstamp exchange, reversing some of its positive momentum from earlier in the week. Market analysts emphasized the importance of key moving averages in the current climate of uncertainty, with specific focus on the low $80,000 range as a critical threshold for bulls aiming for a recovery.
Trader Ryan Hogue highlighted that Bitcoin had just reclaimed the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October 2025, which he indicated was a significant achievement. He speculated that the next key target for Bitcoin would be $84,500, aligning with the 200-day moving average that he believes could be reached this week.
In a similar vein, Nic Puckrin, the CEO and cofounder of Crypto education platform Coin Bureau, pointed out that Bitcoin’s position within its bull market support band—associated with the 21-week EMA—was crucial. This band has historically provided robust support during bullish trends, and its recent breach below this threshold in October last year raised concerns among traders. Puckrin noted that while the $80,000 level currently acts as a resistance, flipping the support band could signify a major shift towards a bullish macro trend.
The impact of macroeconomic factors was palpable as geopolitical tensions continued to affect market sentiment. Bitcoin’s downturn coincided with the opening of Wall Street, mirroring a broader trend seen among U.S. stocks. Conversely, oil prices saw a rise, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude nearing two-week highs at $97.50 per barrel.
QCP Capital, a trading company, commented on the evolving geopolitical situation, particularly noting the visit of Iran’s foreign minister to Moscow for discussions with President Vladimir Putin. This development has reportedly revived worries of escalating tensions, further complicating the market landscape. They emphasized that whether Bitcoin’s next movements represent a classic bull trap or a sustainable recovery would depend on the cryptocurrency’s ability to maintain a position above $82,000.
Additional insights from crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe suggested optimism regarding the market’s direction. He expressed confidence that a breakout beyond the current trading range could be on the horizon. Van de Poppe predicted Bitcoin might reach between $85,000 and $88,000 by May, where it could either consolidate or correct thereafter.
As the situation develops, all eyes remain on Bitcoin’s performance in light of macroeconomic conditions and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
