Bitcoin has recently encountered significant technical and on-chain resistance following a notable price rally. Julio Moreno, the research head at CryptoQuant, has issued a warning that several indicators suggest an increased risk of correction after Bitcoin’s impressive rebound from its April lows. He noted that CryptoQuant has flagged the potential for a pullback over recent weeks, citing a combination of high unrealized profits, increased profit-taking across both spot and futures markets, and a slowdown in demand from U.S. investors.
The firm specifically emphasizes that Bitcoin’s movement toward the 200-day moving average, currently positioned at $82,400, represents a crucial juncture. This level is central to determining whether the current rally has sustainable support or if it reflects a bear-market rebound losing its momentum. The analysis draws parallels to similar trends from March 2022 when Bitcoin experienced a 43% rally before encountering the same moving average, after which the price resumed its downward trajectory.
According to CryptoQuant, the 200-day moving average is more than just a technical indicator; it marks a zone where previous bear-market rallies have faltered amid weak demand and significant profit-taking. Bitcoin’s recent 37% increase from its April lows has brought it to a similar critical inflection point.
One of the key concerns highlighted is the increase in unrealized gains among investors. As of May 5, unrealized profit margins for traders reached 17.7%, the highest level seen since June 2025. This spike is significant because holders with substantial paper profits often become more inclined to sell, particularly as the price approaches a visibly important resistance level.
CryptoQuant also noted that realized profit data indicates that selling pressures might already be manifesting. On May 4, daily realized profits surged to 14,600 BTC, the highest seen since December 10, 2025. Historically, such spikes during bear-market rallies have typically preceded local tops, as new short-term holders seize the opportunity to sell during price increases.
On the demand side, there are concerns as well. A critical indicator, the Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium, has remained negative since late April, indicative of declining demand from U.S. investors. CryptoQuant interprets the absence of a sustained positive premium as a lack of broad U.S. institutional confidence in the rally, which usually acts as a prerequisite for a more durable price increase.
While there has been some improvement in apparent spot demand, it remains negative overall. The contraction in demand narrowed from 91,000 BTC in April to 11,000 BTC, but CryptoQuant assesses that this is not strong enough to confirm lasting spot accumulation. Most demand growth appears to be concentrated in speculative perpetual futures, rather than traditional spot purchasing.
If a correction occurs, CryptoQuant identifies a primary on-chain support level near $70,000, indicated by the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price. This level has historically functioned as a resistance-turned-support band during bear markets and reflects the average cost basis for short-term traders.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin’s price was approximately $76,961, leaving traders and analysts alike monitoring the market closely for signs of either sustained momentum or impending correction.
