Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading close to $60,000 after experiencing a 5% drop over the past day, positioning it roughly 50% below its all-time high. Analysts are examining various charts that suggest the cryptocurrency is still in the midst of its four-year cycle, with a deeper cycle bottom expected to emerge in the future. This aligns with previous analyses that predict the cycle low will occur in the fourth quarter of 2026.
One of the compelling charts by analyst Jesse Olson illustrates the historical pattern of Bitcoin’s price movements in relation to its halving cycles since 2012. Olson notes that each previous cycle bottomed around day 900 post-halving. With the current cycle recently reaching day 775, this implies there are only about 125 days, or roughly four months, before the historically anticipated low window opens. On the chart, a designated orange band indicates a projected price low in the $40,000 range. Notably, the black line corresponding to the 2024 halving has already started to decline, mirroring patterns seen in previous cycles from 2012, 2016, and 2020.
A second chart presents Bitcoin’s price in a spiral format, with each loop representing a four-year cycle. The chart portrays a resemblance to historical patterns, showing that the markers for 2026 and 2027 fall within the established arc that has previously defined cycle lows. The caption for this chart provocatively states, “This time is different,” poking fun at conventional narratives while emphasizing the self-similarity in Bitcoin’s cyclical price behavior.
The third chart establishes key resistance levels that Bitcoin must overcome to regain bullish momentum. The 21-week simple moving average is currently at $75,100, followed by the short-term holder cost basis at $77,000, and the 200-day average at $78,900. During Bitcoin’s previous bull runs, these figures acted as support levels. However, with Bitcoin trading below the short-term holder cost basis, recent investors may be feeling the pressure to sell, placing them in underwater positions.
These cycles appear to align with observations made by analyst Benjamin Cowen, who has noted that Bitcoin typically reaches its peak around day 1,162 of the cycle, closely following previous cycles that peaked around days 1,059 and 1,168. Cowen suggests that the next cycle low will likely occur in October 2026, affirming Olson’s day 900 hypothesis.
Despite this cyclical analysis, not all analysts are convinced that the historical patterns will repeat. The introduction of spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), increased corporate treasury interest, and the concept of Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset could potentially influence the cycle, either stretching or flattening its typical pattern. Should the price reclaim the $78,900 average, it could signal a shift in market sentiment.
As Bitcoin continues its trajectory, three different analytical approaches—a halving day count, a cyclical spiral, and existing price structures—converge on the idea that Bitcoin has yet to find its cycle bottom. A move into the $40,000 range aligns with projected targets and previous on-chain data, while the current drawdown near $63,000 presents an initial marker. The focus shifts towards the fourth quarter of 2026 for a possible recovery, with a weekly close above $79,000 being the first significant indicator of a trend reversal.
