During a recent speech at a Mack truck manufacturing plant in Pennsylvania, former President Donald Trump discussed the rise of the stock market during his second term, highlighting how the increases have positively impacted Americans’ wealth through their 401(k) retirement plans. He claimed, “The typical 401(k), as you know, is up almost $30,000 in … 13 months.”
While it is true that the stock market has experienced gains during Trump’s time in office, his assertion regarding 401(k) gains is far from accurate. Data reveals that the average increase in 401(k) balances does not align with Trump’s claim. Comprehensive analyses of 401(k) plans indicate an increase closer to $9,454, significantly lower than the figure Trump cited.
Trump’s remarks come on the heels of his February 24 State of the Union address, where he first introduced the $30,000 figure. Between his second inauguration on January 20, 2025, and the June 23 speech, the S&P 500 index, which tracks a broad array of publicly traded stocks, rose approximately 24%. This increase reflects a bullish stock market, yet it does not translate directly to individual account growth.
According to Fidelity Investments, which manages a significant number of 401(k) plans, analyzing the average balance growth during Trump’s second term reveals that varying factors—such as income levels, account sizes, company policies, and investment mix—contribute to a challenging landscape for determining a “typical” 401(k) growth rate.
Fidelity’s quarterly data from the end of December 2024 to the end of March 2026 shows a substantial increase in average 401(k) balances, but it roughly equates to one-third of Trump’s cited figure. The largest age group experiencing gains, those aged 55 to 59, saw an increase of around $16,000, yet overall averages indicate that many younger adults or those near retirement age may not benefit similarly.
Financial experts suggest that while account balances may have generally increased, they have not climbed at the same pace as stock markets. From December 2024 to March 2026, the S&P 500 rose by about 11%, but the 401(k) plans tracked by Fidelity only saw an average increase of approximately 6.5%. The mixed asset composition of most 401(k) accounts, coupled with the fact that some individuals are withdrawing funds for various reasons, has contributed to this discrepancy.
In fact, data from Vanguard indicates a rise in early withdrawals from 401(k) accounts, with participants increasingly opting for hardship withdrawals amid financial hardships. From 2024 to 2025, the percentage of participants taking hardship withdrawals grew to about 6%, up from 4.8% the previous year, suggesting that many individuals are struggling with immediate cash flow needs despite the apparent overall growth in their retirement accounts.
This situation presents a dilemma for American workers, particularly those under 59½, as the retirement accounts—designed to secure long-term financial health—offer little immediate assistance for monthly expenses or unexpected costs. According to financial experts, even though the overall net worth of Americans with retirement accounts may improve relative to high stock values, these gains often do not alleviate the financial pressures faced on a day-to-day basis.
In light of the discrepancies between Trump’s statements and available data, the ruling on his assertion stands as “Mostly False.” While stock markets have indeed risen during his presidency, the specific increase in average 401(k) balances does not support the claims being made.
