A significant shift in the cryptocurrency landscape has prompted analysts to reassess the traditional four-year cycle often associated with Bitcoin halving events. Historically, these cycles have dictated price movements in predictable patterns—characterized by accumulation periods, bull runs, and subsequent corrections. However, a confluence of factors including the rise of institutional crypto participation spurred by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a more favorable regulatory environment in the United States, increased global liquidity, and changes in Federal Reserve leadership has led some experts to declare that the typical cycle may no longer hold.
The four-year cycle, historically linked to Bitcoin halving events that reduce miners’ rewards and consequently the supply of Bitcoin, has shaped the narrative of cryptocurrency trading for years. Traditionally, this cycle involves a post-halving increase in value that peaks about 18 months later, followed by a significant correction and an extended bear market. Some analysts, however, note that current market dynamics suggest a deviation from this model. For instance, Bitcoin has experienced a 30% price decline from its peak following the most recent halving, indicating that a bear phase is indeed underway.
Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, has observed that the traditional halving cycle appeared to be starting to break down earlier this year. He attributes this shift to sustained institutional demand through vehicles like ETFs and corporate treasury allocations, which he believes have mitigated the anticipated post-peak crash and dampened volatility compared to prior cycles. Ruck forecasts a potential extension of the current bull market into 2026 due to ongoing structural inflows and evolving market dynamics, despite potential near-term consolidations influenced by broader macroeconomic pressures.
Grayscale’s recent predictions reinforce this outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs in the first half of 2026, driven by macroeconomic trends like currency debasement and a supportive regulatory framework. Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, has similarly expressed skepticism about the validity of the four-year cycle, even revising the bank’s price target for Bitcoin to $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Contrastingly, several analysts maintain that the four-year cycle is still in effect and assert that the cryptocurrency market has already entered a bear phase. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, has declared that Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, being the first major risk asset to reflect a decelerating economy. Other analysts, such as “Rekt Capital,” affirm the cycle’s integrity but suggest that it may be evolving rather than obsolete.
While some traders are seemingly anticipating a continuation of the cycle—resulting in selling pressure that may be negatively affecting prices—others posit that psychological factors and past market traumatization are also influencing current behaviors. The creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, known as “PlanB,” noted that recent selling was largely driven by experienced traders anxious about repeating past downturns.
In summary, the ongoing debate among analysts regarding the future trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market underscores the complexity of capital flows, institutional interest, and market psychology. As these elements continue to evolve, the question remains whether the established four-year cycle will adapt or be fundamentally altered in the coming years.
