An anonymous crypto analyst has stirred discussions in the cryptocurrency community by asserting that Hedera (HBAR) may not be the “dead” trade that many believe it to be. In a recent analysis shared on YouTube, the analyst emphasized that key derivatives data indicates substantial, deliberate buying activity from large players, even as retail sentiment grows more pessimistic about HBAR’s future value.
Focusing on recent trading activity, the analyst observed a notable increase in open interest and futures trading for Hedera during the last weeks of May 2026. Open interest surged by approximately 40%, climbing to around $33 million, while futures trading volume experienced a staggering increase of about 242%. The narrative suggests that these patterns are indicative of institutional-grade strategies, diverging sharply from the flat price movements usually observed in retail-driven markets.
The price of HBAR has been characterized as “sideways, grinding lower, freezing,” yet the analyst posits that metrics from real-time blockchain data and derivatives markets present a contrasting picture. It suggests a sophisticated level of market engagement that is often overlooked amid the apparent stall in HBAR’s market price.
Furthermore, the analysis by Cheeky Crypto highlights that funding rates in the Hedera derivatives market have remained unusually stable, countering the expectation that fluctuating rates would emerge from panicked retail short selling. Instead, this stability implies a strategic market positioning by institutional investors, deploying leveraged capital in a calculated manner.
On-chain data is cited to suggest that large wallets now account for approximately 55% of the circulating HBAR supply, which the analyst describes as a “massive liquidity sink.” This migration of tokens from weak hands into the control of more resilient holders could indicate underlying structural health greater than what the current price action reflects.
Cheeky Crypto also identifies a specific “algorithmic demand zone” around the $0.085 mark, noting that every time HBAR approaches this level, the price tends to stall slightly above it, accompanied by spikes in futures volume and an increase in open interest. This pattern is interpreted as evidence of institutional entities using derivatives to absorb selling pressure from nervous retail investors. The high trading volume, even as prices remain flat, is referred to as “structural absorption,” where larger players seem willing to let retail traders exit their positions.
The analyst raises a cautionary note regarding retail traders using trailing stop losses near these support levels, arguing that such strategies can become vulnerabilities. They posit that many stop losses cluster below perceived support, making it easier for bigger players to trigger these stops and hunt for liquidity, followed by quick recoveries as they capitalize on forced selling.
For investors considering their approach to Hedera, the analyst emphasizes a shift in focus from mere price charts to a more comprehensive understanding of derivatives flows and wallet concentration dynamics, particularly during periods of price stagnation. If their analysis is accurate, it may imply that HBAR is undergoing an aggressive accumulation phase by long-term players, while retail traders’ risk management strategies could potentially work against them in this environment.
Despite the promising signs suggested by the data, the analyst refrains from making definitive predictions about HBAR’s future price movements, consistently warning of the inherent volatility within the crypto market and the associated risks of complete capital loss. The data points of interest include the substantial jump in open interest and futures volume, the stability in funding rates, and the concentration of supply among large wallets, all seen as significant indicators of potential market dynamics.
