Apple is poised for a significant resurgence in smartphone sales with the highly anticipated launch of its new iPhone 17. This latest iteration is heralded as one of the most substantial redesigns of the flagship product in years, generating considerable excitement in the market. Early indicators from insiders monitoring Apple’s supply chain and mobile operators suggest that demand for the redesigned model has exceeded expectations ahead of its official release later this month.
According to analysts, Apple’s smartphone revenue is set to rise by 4 percent this fiscal year, with projections indicating a climb to approximately $209.3 billion. By Fiscal 2026, iPhone revenues are expected to further increase to about $218.9 billion. This optimistic outlook has bolstered market confidence as Apple approaches the critical holiday sales period, even amidst challenges like delays in artificial intelligence feature rollouts and potential tariff impacts from former President Donald Trump.
Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management described the iPhone 17 launch as a pleasant surprise, especially in contrast to Wall Street’s expectations prior to the event. Following a decline in smartphone revenues of 2 percent in its 2023 financial year, which ends in September, Apple is banking on significant upgrades in its new model—enhancements in camera technology, display quality, and battery life are all contributing to a stronger appeal for those looking to upgrade their older devices.
Recent analysis from Bank of America has revealed that shipping times for the iPhone 17 are longer compared to previous years, further indicating strong demand. Waiting times are reported to be around 13 percent longer than those experienced with the iPhone 16, suggesting a possible broader upgrade cycle and indicating a positive product cycle, according to Munster.
As Apple gears up to disclose its fiscal fourth-quarter results at the end of October, early reports and checks have revealed much stronger order volumes for the iPhone 17 compared to last year’s iPhone 16. Francisco Jeronimo from IDC noted the strong customer engagements, stating he hasn’t seen queues outside Apple stores like this year in quite some time.
While unit sales for iPhones have remained relatively stable, hovering around 235 million in projections between fiscal years 2024 and 2026, analysts expect that sales could surpass 240 million by 2027. Market speculation hints at the introduction of a foldable iPhone, which could further drive sales.
The latest iPhone offerings have also been supported by attractive trade-in programs, alongside favorable government subsidy policies for more affordable models in markets like China. Notably, iPhones continue to contribute over half of Apple’s annual revenue, which stands at approximately $390 billion.
Despite this positive momentum, Apple’s stock has faced fluctuations, reaching a yearly high around the iPhone 17 launch before dipping in tandem with broader market trends. Some analysts have expressed caution, with Jefferies recently downgrading Apple shares due to what they view as inflated expectations regarding iPhone demand. Nonetheless, the general sentiment remains bullish as the company navigates potential challenges like trade tensions that could disrupt its global supply chains.
