Bitcoin (BTC) traded at approximately $114,200 during the Asian morning hours on Thursday, marking a 2.4% increase over the previous 24 hours. This upward trend appears amidst a significant macroeconomic week as major cryptocurrencies also saw gains. Ether (ETH) rose by 2.4% to reach $4,400, while XRP’s price climbed above $3 at $3.0026. Additionally, BNB from BNB Chain approached the $900 mark, and Solana’s SOL achieved nearly a 3% increase. Notably, Dogecoin (DOGE) outperformed the market with a 5% daily gain, culminating in a week-long increase of 15.9%.
Traders are increasingly interested in a valuation trend highlighted in a recent report by CF Benchmarks. The report indicates that Bitcoin is currently trading below its fair value range when correlated with U.S. M2 money supply growth. The disparity between the expansion of M2 and Bitcoin’s pricing has not been this significant since August 2024, which traders view as a potential strong entry point. Historical patterns from 2016, 2019, and 2021 show that similar divergences led to notable price surges.
Over the past decade, Bitcoin has displayed a consistent positive correlation with M2, generally leading to price movements approximately three months later. If this historical trend persists, an increase in liquidity later in the fourth quarter could potentially favor Bitcoin’s price advancement.
From a tactical perspective, market analysts believe that bullish momentum remains, although there are critical levels that need to be reclaimed. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, commented that “Bitcoin continues to attract buyers on intraday dips, forming a smooth and rather fragile uptrend, with the main battle now around $112,000.” He added that the real test lies around $115,000, marking a critical point just above the 50-day moving average. Maintaining levels above this threshold would indicate a return of optimism in the market, although BTC currently appears to be lagging behind stocks that are at record highs.
Options desks have reported increased demand for protective measures ahead of the impending U.S. inflation data, reflecting a generally neutral-to-bearish sentiment in the short term. Meanwhile, Solana’s momentum has been fueled by a steady rise in Total Value Locked (TVL), reaching a record high of $12.2 billion—an increase of 57% since June. Analysts have floated $300 targets for SOL, linking these projections to ongoing activity and on-chain liquidity, though further gains may hinge on wider risk appetite.
However, the macroeconomic calendar could still pose challenges, as U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are set to be released later today. A lower-than-expected inflation reading could strengthen the case for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a weaker dollar, both of which are typically supportive for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
