Bitcoin investors are facing warnings of a potential downturn in the cryptocurrency market. Jon Glover, a prominent market expert and Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, has indicated that the bullish momentum that kicked off in early 2023 is likely coming to an end. Glover’s analysis suggests a long bear market is on the horizon, with Bitcoin anticipated to drop to around $70,000 or lower, representing a significant 35% decrease from its recent price near $108,000, as reported by CoinDesk.
Glover stated, “I firmly believe we have completed the five-wave upward move and are now entering a bear market that may last until at least late 2026.” He believes that Bitcoin is expected to stabilize between $70,000 and $80,000, and potentially face even steeper declines. Although there may be attempts to retest previous highs near $124,000, Glover emphasized that the prevailing trend has shifted to a bearish outlook.
The basis of Glover’s predictions lies in the Elliott Wave Theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938. This theory posits that investor emotions follow a cyclical pattern, moving in five waves—three upward (impulse) and two downward (corrective). Bitcoin’s recent bull cycle, which commenced in late 2022 when prices dipped below $20,000, culminated in a peak above $126,000 earlier this month, marking the zenith of this upward wave.
Earlier this year, Glover had predicted that Bitcoin’s fifth wave would take it as high as $140,000 to $150,000 by the year’s end. Despite some volatility that saw Bitcoin drop from $120,000 to $112,000, the cryptocurrency did subsequently rise, though it ultimately failed to maintain momentum past $125,000. Glover subsequently cautioned that if Bitcoin could not sustain prices above $125,000, the bullish narrative would start to weaken. Last week, Bitcoin’s price fell to $105,000, further reinforcing Glover’s assertion that the bull market had concluded prematurely.
“Now that we have broken down below $108k, I am ready to make the call as to whether we are on the orange path… or the yellow path,” Glover explained, differentiating between two potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s future. The “orange path” suggests a scenario where prices could climb to $145,000, while the “yellow path” indicates we have witnessed the market’s highs.
Glover’s bearish sentiment aligns with historical patterns observed in Bitcoin’s market cycles, where peaks are often followed by declines approximately 18 months post-halving events. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, aligning with Glover’s timeline for a potential downturn.
Supporting Glover’s perspective, data from Amberdata indicates that Bitcoin put options, which are used to hedge against losses, are selling for more than call options that aim for profit. This trend suggests that traders are anticipating a prolonged period of falling prices, with put options being priced higher through September 2026.
In summary, Glover firmly asserts that the Bitcoin bull run has officially come to a close, presenting a grim outlook for investors.
