As bitcoin approaches the final week of the year, it finds itself down 30% from its all-time high of $69,000 reached on October 6. This decline has coincided with significant outflows from bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $1.08 billion withdrawn in December, marking the third-largest monthly exodus recorded by SoSoValue.
Amid the fluctuations, Citi analysts have released their 2026 digital assets outlook, projecting a 12-month base case price for bitcoin at $143,000. This forecast is primarily driven by expectations of renewed demand for bitcoin ETFs. In terms of scenarios, they outline a bull case that positions bitcoin at $189,000 and a bear case bracketed by macroeconomic conditions, estimating a price as low as $78,000.
The analysts noted, however, that bitcoin is currently trading near their activity-based estimates. They anticipate a period of range trading in the $80,000 to $100,000 range until legislative developments occur, which are hoped for in the second quarter of next year. The volatility in the market remains high, with $70,000 identified as a crucial psychological benchmark as pre-election considerations loom.
In addition, event contracts suggest that market participants currently assign a 12% probability that bitcoin will reach $150,000 before May 2026, while there’s a slightly lower 10% chance it could do so by April. These probabilities are derived from Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, and sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
Nic Puckrin, a co-founder of Coin Bureau, shared his insights with Sherwood News, noting that the long-term outlook for bitcoin remains robust. However, he cautioned that several impending factors could create short-term challenges for the cryptocurrency. Specifically, concerns surrounding the debt ceiling, the possibility of another government shutdown, and uncertainties regarding the CLARITY Act could weigh heavily in early 2026.
Puckrin indicated that the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next chair of the Federal Reserve might provide a temporary boost to bitcoin’s price. Yet, reflecting on the year’s trends, he stressed that one positive development is insufficient to reignite enthusiasm in the crypto market. He remains optimistic about bitcoin potentially achieving a new all-time high in 2026 but cautioned that this milestone may not come in January. He forecasts that market jitters may lead to a retracement, with $82,000 serving as a strong support level in the near future.
