Bitcoin’s recent price movements have sparked intense debate among market analysts, particularly as it trades approximately 3% lower than previous levels and 13% off its all-time high of $126,000, reached on October 6. The prevailing sentiment suggests that this peak may represent the cycle top for Bitcoin.
Analysis indicates a bearish trend on Bitcoin’s three-week chart, with a newly confirmed bearish MACD crossover signaling potential weakness. Jesse Olson, a crypto analyst, pointed out in a recent post that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has dropped below its signal line, suggesting a shift in market momentum. Historical data reveals that similar bearish signals were observed at the peaks of the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, raising alarms about the sustainability of current gains.
Additionally, Olson highlighted the formation of a bearish engulfing candle on the same three-week chart, a pattern that historically corresponds with market tops. He further noted a decline in network activity, with the number of daily active addresses on the Bitcoin network dropping by 30% in October. This reduction reflects waning engagement, a trend often preceding price corrections.
Trader Mister Crypto reiterates concerns about reaching a historical cycle peak, as the Bitcoin market currently stands 558 days post the 2024 halving, closely matching past cycles where peaks typically occurred between 518 to 580 days thereafter. Fellow analyst CryptoBird added that Bitcoin appears poised for a final surge in the cycle, yet cautioned that the window for significant price movement may be limited.
Contrastingly, some experts maintain that Bitcoin’s potential for growth remains intact. Analyst Jelle noted the formation of a higher low, suggesting that if Bitcoin can reclaim the $116,000 region, upward momentum could return. Mags pointed to a bullish megaphone pattern emerging in Bitcoin’s price action, historically leading to breakout scenarios.
The ongoing conversation about Bitcoin’s future is further complicated by differing opinions on whether the traditional four-year halving cycle still holds relevance. While some, like BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes, argue that this cycle is losing its influence, others point to institutional adoption and evolving market dynamics as catalysts for additional bullish momentum in 2026.
Amidst this backdrop, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple indicates that Bitcoin’s current levels may still be closer to “oversold” territory, leaving the ambitious target of $180,000 on the table for future consideration. As traders navigate this volatile landscape, the consensus remains that thorough research and cautious strategy are essential for navigating potential risks.
