On Sunday, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable uptick of up to 3%, marking a significant shift from its recent lows. However, many traders remained unconvinced about the sustainability of this rebound, expressing skepticism about the end of the price crash.
According to recent analyses, comparisons to the 2022 bear market suggest that there may be further macro lows ahead if the current trend continues. Analysts emphasized the importance of moving averages and the average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as critical factors to watch. Not surprisingly, some experts cautioned that a repetition of the 2022 scenario is not guaranteed.
TradingView data indicated that BTCUSD moved back above the $71,000 mark, reflecting a 20% recovery since hitting 15-month lows on Friday. As the weekly close approached, Bitcoin exhibited its typical volatility, prompting doubts among market participants about whether this rebound could be sustained.
Independent analyst Filbfilb shared a chart juxtaposing the current price action with that of the previous bear market, delivering a stark warning to bullish traders. He stated, “I’m not going to try to dress it up any way other than how it looks,” referring to the diminishing signs of a strong recovery. Similarly, analyst Tony Severino presented several price indicators, concluding that further lows may be inevitable.
Echoing these sentiments, trader BitBull warned that the final capitulation for Bitcoin had yet to occur. He highlighted the need for a true bottom to materialize below the $50,000 mark, where many ETF investors would face significant losses. Presently, the average buy-in price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hovers around $82,000, as reported by monitoring resource Checkonchain.
The sentiment of déjà vu regarding Bitcoin’s price trajectory continued, as previous trends came into focus once again. Cointelegraph had previously reported on a critical feature of the bear market, characterized by the 200-week simple and exponential moving averages. Together, these create a support “cloud” that ranges between $58,000 and $68,000, a range of significant interest for traders.
Weekend market insights from Caleb Franzen, creator of Cubic Analytics, also echoed the concerns surrounding current market conditions. He pointed out that the situation felt reminiscent of May 2022, when Bitcoin retested its 200-week moving average cloud. Market participants at that time were convinced that having completed a retest of the key moving average, Bitcoin would push higher. However, the ensuing rally was fleeting, ultimately leading to the price breaking below that support zone weeks later.
Franzen acknowledged that the market may not replicate the past perfectly, but emphasized the inherent uncertainty in predicting future movements. “The reality is that no one knows what happens next,” he noted, underscoring the unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market as traders navigate the current landscape.
