As the weekend trading session concludes, Bitcoin (BTC) maintains a steady position around the $115,000 mark. Traders are closely monitoring price movements as a pivotal week unfolds for both cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. After achieving recent highs of $116,800 during Friday’s Wall Street session—the strongest performance since August 23—Bitcoin’s price stability is being assessed.
From a technical perspective, BTC/USD is at a crucial juncture as it approaches the close of the week. Analyst Rekt Capital has pointed out that a weekly close above $114,000 could signify the continuation of Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, as this represents a significant psychological barrier pivotal for short-term price direction. Current consolidation indicates caution in the market, but data shows substantial purchasing demand just below the $115,000 threshold, which may prevent significant price declines.
Technically, various indicators are providing mixed signals. The hourly MACD suggests weakening bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the neutral 50 mark, indicating a possible short-term pullback. However, Bitcoin continues to trade around its 100-hour simple moving average, denoting underlying support. Key resistance levels are identified at $116,200 and $116,500, with potential for upward movement if these levels are breached, possibly advancing towards $117,500. Conversely, immediate support is positioned at $114,900, with more substantial support situated at $113,750—the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the institutional front, a significant surge in Bitcoin allocations is expected. Analyst Jordi Visser predicts that traditional financial institutions will notably increase their Bitcoin holdings in the fourth quarter of 2024, thereby elevating demand for the cryptocurrency in 2025. This growing institutional interest is evidenced by substantial net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have accumulated approximately $2.33 billion in just five trading days, bringing the total since their inception in January 2024 to $56.79 billion. Additionally, publicly traded companies now collectively hold over $117.03 billion worth of Bitcoin.
Survey data reinforces the trend, indicating that 83% of institutional investors plan to reinforce their cryptocurrency allocations in 2025. If predictions hold, Bitcoin could attract a staggering $120 billion by 2025, with estimates rising to $300 billion by 2026.
Another crucial factor in upcoming market dynamics is the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate decision. Markets widely expect at least a 0.25% rate drop, likely bolstering risk assets such as Bitcoin, as lower interest rates typically drive capital towards investments with higher returns. A trading firm, Mosaic Asset Company, expressed optimism for the fourth quarter based on several encouraging economic indicators, suggesting that these conditions may support further upward movements in risk assets, including Bitcoin.
In terms of price predictions, Bitcoin appears poised for a potential breakout above $116,500, underpinned by the current technical setup and favorable fundamentals. Initial targets include $117,500 and $118,500. However, should it fail to maintain the critical $114,000 weekly closing level, a deeper decline towards $112,500 or even lower could occur.
Overall, Bitcoin’s outlook remains positive, driven by technical consolidation, increasing institutional interest, and advantageous monetary policy conditions. While short-term volatility is anticipated, medium-term projections appear robust, with many analysts forecasting new all-time highs surpassing the current cycle peak of $124,500.
