Bitcoin’s network activity index recently surpassed its 365-day moving average for the first time since December 2024, signaling the beginning of a bull phase, according to research from CryptoQuant. This pivotal moment aligns with previous significant price surges observed in 2024 and 2025.
In 2026, daily Bitcoin transactions have soared past 800,000, more than doubling from the lows recorded in 2025. Concurrently, the network activity index leaped from approximately 3,320 to around 3,600. Despite this upswing in activity, Bitcoin’s price at the time of reporting was $62,500, reflecting a 2.5% decline over the previous 24 hours.
The timing of this shift is particularly notable given the geopolitical landscape. The recent partial de-escalation stemming from the Iran peace talks has eased some of the geopolitical risk that has previously dampened investor sentiment in the crypto markets. BTC is currently hovering just above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) of $62,000, a historically significant level that has acted as long-cycle support.
The simultaneous occurrence of a bull-phase signal and favorable macroeconomic conditions has prompted discussions about whether a market bottom may truly be in sight. However, a deeper analysis reveals complexities that challenge this assertion. Stripping away surface-level price movements uncovers fundamental changes occurring within the network.
CryptoQuant’s network activity index aggregates metrics such as transaction count, active addresses, and block utilization. Historically, gaining ground above the 365-day average has indicated a shift into prolonged bull phases. Notably, this pattern emerged in late 2024 and briefly in April 2025 before major price increases followed. Currently, average transactions per block are nearing record highs, a trend that CryptoQuant characterizes as structurally significant rather than ephemeral.
Support for this new phase is further underscored by changes in accumulation data. Long-term holders, often referred to as HODLers, now possess over 4.37 million BTC, a noticeable increase from about 2 million BTC in early 2024. This substantial illiquid supply effectively tightens the available market float ahead of potential price recoveries. Analysis from VanEck highlights that approximately 43% of Bitcoin’s total supply has remained dormant for over three years, placing it in the upper historical percentiles.
Nevertheless, there is a caveat to the bullish signal. CryptoQuant indicates that “the economic content of these transactions differs materially from prior high-activity periods.” Transactions below 0.01 BTC—equivalent to roughly $630—currently make up around 80% of all daily on-chain activity, a sharp rise from 44% observed in 2023.
The surge in microtransactions within the sub-0.001 BTC and sub-0.01 BTC categories is largely attributed to OP_RETURN-based protocols like Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens, and data timestamping services. CryptoQuant reports that usage of OP_RETURN has spiked to near-record levels in 2026, with these protocols accounting for a considerable volume of small-value transactions, or “dust.” The overall value transferred in these transactions remains significantly low.
Additionally, the Bitcoin mempool has expanded to around 128,000 pending transactions, the highest number since late February 2025. This congestion is primarily present in the low-fee tier. CryptoQuant cautions that a prolonged increase in protocol-driven activity could lead to heightened transaction fees for time-sensitive economic dealings, potentially imposing genuine costs on overall economic throughput. Although this dynamic is worth monitoring, it hasn’t yet reached a point where it disrupts settlement flows significantly.
