Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its downward trajectory, reaching a price of $103,500 on Friday, which has led to a significant shift in market sentiment. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, a measure of the pricing discrepancy between Coinbase and other exchanges, has turned red on the hourly chart for the first time in weeks, indicating increasing bearish pressure.
Earlier in the week, BTC attempted to stabilize around $110,000, boosted by steady demand from U.S. investors, with the Coinbase premium even rising to 0.18, the highest since March 2024. However, the inability to maintain momentum above the $110,000 mark resulted in a decline in investor confidence. While the hourly premium is negative, the daily reading remains slightly positive. This suggests that, although long-term U.S. buying support is under pressure, it is not entirely extinguished.
Compounding the situation, Bitcoin’s taker sell volume skyrocketed beyond $4 billion, reflecting a surge in market sell orders. This spike came as BTC faced rejection at the short-term holder (STH) realized price of $112,370, a crucial resistance level. This price point marks the average cost basis for many recent buyers, and continuous rejection below it could precipitate a short-term capitulation, potentially driving prices down toward $100,000.
The current price behavior of Bitcoin is reminiscent of the March-April bottom range, wherein rapid intra-day price fluctuations cleared out built-up liquidity before a gradual recovery ensued. Analysts suggest that BTC could revisit the $100,000 range without jeopardizing its overall bullish structure, provided it does not slip decisively below this threshold.
In addition, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) has plummeted to its lowest point since April, reaching a level of 34. This drop has historically preceded recoveries in BTC’s price. One significant technical level to monitor is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Bitcoin has maintained this trendline for nearly six months, having held firm from April to October 2025. If the price breaks below this critical support in the coming days, it may signal more extensive bearish implications.
If BTC continues to mimic its previous market patterns, the crypto market could face a consolidation period lasting several weeks. The previous recovery phase during Q1 extended over 45–55 days, finally achieving a bottom by late April. Based on this historical context, a meaningful recovery might not surface until late November or early December.
Crypto trader Dentoshi has also noted that Bitcoin has consistently bottomed near the 3-day 100 EMA in this bull market, although it has taken anywhere from 45 to 96 days for significant recoveries to materialize.
As the situation remains fluid, market participants are urged to exercise caution. This analysis does not serve as investment advice, and individuals should conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions.
