Following a promising start to September, Bitcoin’s price has reverted to its early-month levels, leaving many investors anticipating an upward trend as the historically bullish month of “Uptober” approaches. However, troubling signals are emerging regarding the cryptocurrency’s potential trajectory.
Recent analysis indicates that Bitcoin may be facing significant downward pressure in the weeks ahead. A well-known analyst on the X platform has pointed out that Bitcoin has dipped below a critical threshold. This breach could indicate a further decline of approximately 10% in price.
Burak Kesmeci, an on-chain analyst, provided insights on Bitcoin’s price movements concerning the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price. This metric, which signifies the average price at which short-term investors—those holding Bitcoin for less than 115 days—acquired their assets, serves as a vital support and resistance indicator for the market.
Kesmeci noted that Bitcoin has now dipped beneath the STH Realized Price, pegged at around $111,500, for the fourth time this year. This threshold has previously acted as a pivotal point, influencing Bitcoin’s price action. Historically, when Bitcoin has fallen below this level, it has entered consolidation phases, leading to notable price declines.
In the past occurrences of such dips—three significant instances since the beginning of the current bull run in November 2022—Bitcoin experienced an average loss near 10%. For example, after the first breach, Bitcoin’s price fell over 8% between August and October 2023. In a subsequent incident, the value dropped more than 13% from June to October 2024, and most recently, a decline of nearly 8% was observed between February and April 2025.
Kesmeci emphasized that these consolidation phases typically last around 77 days, leading to considerable losses for investors. The analyst indicated that should Bitcoin finish this week—and potentially the month—below the STH Realized Price of $111,500, it may enter another correction phase, with losses similar to those experienced in previous instances.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price stands at approximately $109,538, showing no significant fluctuation in the past 24 hours. As the cryptocurrency market braces for the upcoming weeks, traders will be closely monitoring these metrics and price levels to gauge future movements.
