Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a relatively quiet October, with prices fluctuating modestly—up only about 1.5% throughout the month. However, the cryptocurrency has shown signs of life recently, making a nearly 5% gain over the last week. At one point, Bitcoin’s price briefly touched $113,200 but faced resistance near the significant $115,000 mark, which now plays a crucial role in determining whether the market will resume its upward momentum or retreat further.
The sudden rejection at the $115,000 level, although unexpected for many traders, had been anticipated through on-chain data analysis. According to CryptoQuant’s Spent Output Value Bands, which track the movement of Bitcoin by various holder groups, there was a notable increase in selling pressure between October 25 and 28. Specifically, the group holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC, often referred to as “sharks,” increased their transactions from 1,046 BTC to 7,191 BTC. Meanwhile, “whales,” those controlling between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, contributed around 3,250 BTC to exchanges during this period. Such influxes typically signal profit-taking or short-term hedging strategies, ultimately contributing to a supply surge just as Bitcoin was attempting to break through the $115,000 ceiling.
Despite this selling pressure, Bitcoin’s overall performance indicators remain robust. The Holder Accumulation Ratio (HAR) from Glassnode, which reflects the proactive buying behavior of long-term holders, stands at 60.2%. This ratio suggests that the market is in a stage of net accumulation, as any reading above 50% indicates increased wallet activity targeting BTC accumulation. Although the figure is slightly below its three-month high of around 63%, it confirms that the upward buying trend among long-term holders continues unabated.
This ongoing accumulation is significant, as it helps offset the short-term selling from larger holders. Active long-term accumulation is crucial for maintaining market stability, preventing larger price pullbacks, and setting the stage for potential upward movement if market momentum returns.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price structure is currently aligned with an inverse head and shoulders pattern, often interpreted as a transitional signal from bearish to bullish momentum. This pattern is valid as long as Bitcoin remains above the $106,600 mark, which serves as the pattern’s base.
Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), an important indicator that assesses the strength of buying and selling pressure, demonstrated a hidden bearish divergence during the breakout attempt from October 13 to 26. During this timeframe, Bitcoin prices reached lower highs while the RSI indicated higher highs, signaling a weakening momentum. This divergence laid the groundwork for expectations that the breakout attempt near the $115,000 threshold might falter.
Currently, however, the RSI and Bitcoin prices show a better alignment, suggesting that selling pressure is diminishing and that the groundwork for a potential recovery is being laid out. Still, the $115,000 level remains crucial. Should Bitcoin successfully close above this mark, it could pave the way for further upward movement, potentially leading toward price targets of $117,300 and even $125,900—an increase of about 11% from current levels. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to maintain its position and drops below $106,600, it could invalidate the bullish setup, with a possibility of the price declining towards $103,500.
