The price of Bitcoin experienced a notable fluctuation on Monday, initially surpassing the $90,000 threshold after starting at around $88,000 during Asian trading hours. This surge captured attention as it momentarily crossed the psychological barrier before retreating back near the $88,000 mark as U.S. investors returned to the market in the afternoon. The recent pattern of price movements suggests a recurring trend where Bitcoin gains momentum during early trading hours, only to see those gains dissipate once trading shifts to the U.S. market.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that Bitcoin futures open interest surged towards $60 billion across major platforms such as Binance, CME, and Bybit. This increase points to new leveraged positions being established rather than simply short-covering from existing positions. While rising open interest and escalating prices can introduce additional risk, they do not inherently predict imminent market trouble. Should momentum falter, it could lead to rapid unwinding of crowded long positions and significant price corrections. Conversely, if the upward movement continues, this leverage could amplify potential gains, particularly if Bitcoin manages to maintain a position above $90,000, which may indicate a break from the prevailing trend of sharp sell-offs.
From a technical standpoint, key support for Bitcoin is situated around $84,000, a level that has shown resilience in recent weeks. Immediate resistance levels are noted at $91,400, followed by a more critical threshold at $94,000. Analysts also highlight subsequent resistance regions at $98,000 and between $101,000 and $108,000. A close above $108,000 could challenge the notion that the 2025 peak represents a long-term high for Bitcoin.
The broader U.S. economic landscape continues to bear significant weight on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. With the Federal Reserve’s policy direction remaining uncertain, particularly due to delayed inflation data from a recent government shutdown, caution persists among market participants. Gabriel Selby, head of research at CF Benchmark, noted that until the Fed receives consistent inflation data for several months, investors are likely to refrain from making substantial commitments to risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Upcoming U.S. economic indicators are also set to take center stage, with GDP figures for the third quarter expected to reveal around 3.5% annualized growth, slightly lower than the second quarter’s performance. Additionally, consumer confidence and weekly jobless claims data could further shape market sentiment, influencing risk appetite for assets like Bitcoin.
The historical pattern known as the “Santa Rally,” which has often seen the S&P 500 rise during the last trading days of December and the first days of January, offers some hope. Bitcoin’s connection to equities through ETFs suggests that a strong performance in stocks could positively affect the cryptocurrency market. Despite mixed historical returns for Bitcoin during this period, averages show a roughly 7.9% gain since 2011, contrasted with gold’s more reliable 95% cumulative return over the same timeframe.
At present, sellers appear to dominate near the $89,000 mark, approximately 30% below the all-time high reached in October. Recent data indicates that investors withdrew nearly $500 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, signaling a degree of caution amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. Nevertheless, if bulls can maintain support above $84,000 and hold gains above $90,000 during U.S. trading hours, it could lay the groundwork for a potential year-end rally. The interplay of spot demand, futures leverage, and macroeconomic factors will likely determine if Bitcoin can persist in its pursuit of the crucial $94,000 and $101,000 levels in the weeks leading to year-end.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $88,368, reflecting a 24-hour trading volume of $40 billion. The cryptocurrency’s market capitalization stood around $1.76 trillion, with nearly 20 million coins in circulation against a capped maximum supply of 21 million.
