Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a significant rebound, approaching the $65,800 mark, following the emergence of an on-chain bottom signal for the second time this year. This signal mirrors the setup that preceded a notable 24% rally earlier in 2026. The recent price movement has attracted the attention of large holders, often referred to as “whales,” who appear to be increasing their positions, suggesting they believe the current low is a solid entry point.
This bullish momentum is underpinned by a specific metric known as the Seller Exhaustion Constant, developed by ARK Invest in collaboration with Glassnode. This metric assesses market conditions by calculating a weighted ratio of Bitcoin supply held at a profit against the 30-day price volatility, thus identifying low-risk buying opportunities. Notably, the Seller Exhaustion Constant peaked at 0.082 on February 12, coinciding with Bitcoin trading close to $66,248. Following this signal, Bitcoin surged to a price of approximately $82,186 by May 10, reflecting a significant appreciation of around 24%.
Now, the metric has flashed once more. On June 11, it registered a value of 0.053, marking its second-highest reading in the past six months. This recent signal has proven compelling, especially when coupled with notable buying activity among large holders.
In particular, a prominent cohort of Bitcoin whales, those who possess between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, has increased their holdings from around 693,600 BTC to 694,390 BTC on the same day the signal emerged. Meanwhile, smaller whales—those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC—also expanded their positions, raising their collective stash from approximately 4.24 million BTC to 4.25 million BTC starting June 13. Together, these groups have added nearly 11,000 BTC, valued at about $700 million based on current prices.
The recent price action for Bitcoin, following its dip to $59,100, saw it surpass the $64,694 threshold on June 11, aligning with the bullish signal. Now hovering around $65,800, Bitcoin is encountering resistance at this level. Observers are keenly watching key price levels: a reclaim of the 20-day exponential moving average at $66,610 may pave the way for a rise to $68,155, which represents a 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from previous swings.
Further success may target $70,953, especially if broader market sentiments remain favorable. Anticipation grows around potential developments, notably regarding the US-Iran deal, which could enhance risk appetite among investors and attract retail participation alongside the whales. Should momentum continue to build, targets could extend to $73,750, eventually aspiring toward the 200-day EMA at around $78,668, with a stretch goal set at $82,805, mirroring previous price surges.
Despite these bullish signals, there is a caveat: the overall buyer-specific volume is declining, indicating that retail investors may be seeking additional confirmation before fully committing to the market. This dynamic underscores the complexity of the current market landscape, where optimism is tempered by cautious trading behavior.
